Thursday, January 31, 2013

This Morning: FB’s Four Downgrades, QCOM, SWKS Surge

Here are some things going on this morning in your world of tech:

Shares of Facebook (FB) are down $1.03, or 3.3%,a5 $30.21, after the company last night beat Q4 revenue and earnings expectations but turned up lower mobile results and higher investment costs, than some analysts expected. The stock this morning got four downgrades, from Jefferies & Co., Stifel Nicolaus, BMO Capital, and Citigroup.

Citi’s Neil Doshi, cutting his rating to Neutral from Buy, while maintaining his $30 price target, writing “We view FB as a core long-term �Net stock. But with plans to invest heavily in the biz in 2013, and little expected contribution from new initiatives like Gifts or Graph Search, we don�t see any near-term catalysts for the stock.”

“We believe that FB can justify a 35x EPS multiple (given its high 30% EBITDA and EPS 3-year CAGR); but, with 2013 numbers coming down, we can�t justify a higher multiple than that. Hence, the Neutral.”

Shares of Fusion-IO (FIO) are down $3.10, or 15.4%, at $16.99 after the company last night slashed its year revenue outlook, citing delays in ordering new gear from two customers who make up half its revenue, Apple (AAPL) and Facebook. The stock this morning got three downgrades, that I can see, from Credit Suisse, JP Morgan, and Piper Jaffray, though Lazard Capital also raised the stock to Buy from Neutral.

In his upgrade note this morning, Lazard Capital’s Edward Parker, raising FIO shares to Buy from Neutral, with a $23 price target, writes that “Customer concentration and its associated lumpiness is a fundamental aspect of the business, but with the reset we believe numbers now adequately compensate for this.”

Shares of Qualcomm (QCOM) and Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), both big Apple (suppliers that reported last night, are both rising this morning after better-than-expected results, with SWKS up $2.95, or 13.4%, at $24.51, and Qualcomm up $3.15, or almost 5%, at $66.68. Price targets and estimates appear to be going up for both, though there are no ratings changes as of yet.

In her assessment of Skyworks this morning, JoAnne Feeney of Longbow Research particularly likes the fact the company has diversified its business away from Apple, writing “Samsung [Electronics (005930KS)] exposure of 17% and new product ramps there are helping to offset the Apple decline (25% of sales); the company is holding onto share in PA and new functions look to be offsetting ASP and integration pressures.”

“QCOM�s results last night also confirm the ramp of non-Apple models and we see strong smartphone growth in line with our initial views.”

Shares of Research in Motion (RIMM) continue to be under pressure this morning following yesterday’s debut of the BlackBerry 10 operating system, the company’s planned name-change to BlackBerry, and the unveiling of two new smartphones, the Z10 and Q10, even though there was some decent praise for the Z10 last night from gadget reviewers.

The stock gets another downgrade this morning, following the one from Evercore last night, this one from Credit Suisse’s Kulbinder Garcha, who cuts the stock to Underperform from Neutral, writing that “we see limited scope for traction in the hypercompetitive smartphone market,” and that “RIM’s major business model change in services will result a significant decline this high margin revenue stream, driving operating losses and potential cash burn.”

RIMM shares are off 93 cents, or 7%, at $12.85.

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