Saturday, August 31, 2013

Best Dividend Stocks To Buy For 2014

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Best Dividend Stocks To Buy For 2014: Cross(A.T.)

A.T. Cross Company engages in the design and marketing of personal and business accessories. It operates in two segments, Cross Accessory Division (CAD) and Cross Optical Group (COG). The CAD segment manufactures and markets writing instruments under the Cross brand, including ball-point pens, fountain pens, selectip rolling ball pens, mechanical pencils, and writing instrument accessories, such as refills and desk sets. It also provides various personal and business accessories, including leather goods, reading glasses, watches, desk sets, cufflinks, and stationery. This segment sells its products through direct sales force and manufacturers' agents or representatives to approximately 2,400 retail and wholesale accounts; and directly to consumers through its Web site, cross.com, and the Cross retail stores in the United States, as well as through distributors and retailers worldwide. The COG segment designs, manufactures, and markets polarized sunglasses and goggles under the Costa and Native brnads in the United States. This segment sells its products through employee representatives and manufacturers? agents to optical and sunglass specialty shops, department stores, and sporting goods retailers in the United States. A.T. Cross Company was founded in 1846 and is headquartered in Lincoln, Rhode Island.

Best Dividend Stocks To Buy For 2014: Triumph Group Inc.(TGI)

Triumph Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the design, engineering, manufacture, repair, overhaul, and distribution of aircraft components. The company operates in two segments, Aerospace Systems and Aftermarket Services. The Aerospace Systems segment provides mechanical and electromechanical controls, such as hydraulic systems and components, main engine gearbox assemblies, and accumulators and mechanical control cables. It also involves in stretch forming, die forming, milling, bonding, machining, welding, and assembling and fabricating various structural components used in aircraft wings, fuselages, and other assemblies. In addition, this segment provides composite assemblies for floor panels, environmental control system ducts, non-structural cockpit components, and thermal acoustic insulation systems. The Aftermarket Services segment provides maintenance, repair, and overhaul services for commercial and military markets. This segment offers its services on auxiliary power units, and air frame and engine accessories, including constant-speed drives, cabin compressors, starters and generators, and pneumatic drive units; and on thrust reversers, nacelle components, and flight control surfaces, as well as supplies spare parts of cockpit instruments and gauges for a range of commercial airlines. The company serves the aerospace industry, including original equipment manufacturers of commercial, regional, business, and military aircraft and components, as well as commercial airlines, air cargo carriers, and military customers. Triumph Group, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is based in Wayne, Pennsylvania.

Top 10 Penny Stocks To Own For 2014: Plum Creek Timber Company Inc.(PCL)

Plum Creek Timber Company, Inc. is a publicly owned real estate investment trust (REIT). The trust owns and manages timberlands in the United States. Its products include lumber products, plywood, medium density fiberboard, and related by-products, such as wood chips. The trust also focuses on mineral extraction and natural gas production, communication, and transportation. Plum Creek Timber Company was founded in 1989 and is based in Seattle, Washington.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Richard Young]

    Prices for lumber are improving after a big drop in early 2011. Plum Creek Timber (NYSE:PCL) took advantage of the increased export demand from China last year by increasing its harvest by 40%. When lumber prices fall, timber companies can wait out the hard times with assets (the trees) that keep increasing in value. My price chart for Plum Creek shows a nice breakout around its 200-day moving average. Buy.

  • [By Jonas Elmerraji]

    Plum Creek Timber (PCL) isn't your typical commercial REIT. Instead, the firm is a niche trust that operates in the timber business, one of the less conventional businesses allowed by the REIT Act signed in 1960. PCL owns 6.6 million acres of timberlands in 19 states.

    Only the timberland business falls under REIT rules, with logging operations treated as a traditional taxable corporation. For all intents and purposes, though, PCL's bread and butter remains its timberland; the firm earns more money through recreation, development, and conservation efforts than through logging. That could change as the housing market heats up, especially as supply constraints push timber prices higher. Either way, Plum Creek's combination of tax-advantaged REIT income and conventional business makes the firm a unique name to own right now...

    Financially, PCL is in strong shape, with more than $350 million in cash offsetting a reasonable $3 billion debt load. While PCL resorted to liquidating land to fund its dividend in the wake of the Great Recession, recent acquisitions should help calm investors' concerns. For the moment, this stock pays a 3.5% dividend yield. While Plum Creek isn't a conventional REIT by most measures, it does make a great non-core holding for income-seekers in 2013.

Best Dividend Stocks To Buy For 2014: Capital Bank Corporation(CBKN)

Capital Bank Corporation operates as the holding company for Capital Bank that provides general commercial banking products and services in North Carolina. Its deposit products include checking, savings, negotiable order of withdrawal, money market, and individual retirement accounts, as well as certificates of deposit. The company?s loan products portfolio comprises loans for real estate, construction, businesses, agriculture, personal use, home improvement, and automobiles, as well as equity lines of credit, mortgage loans, credit loans, consumer loans, and credit cards. It also offers safe deposit boxes, bank money orders, Internet banking services, traveler?s checks, and notary services, as well as electronic funds transfer services, including wire transfers and remote deposit capture. In addition, the company provides automated teller machine access to its customers; and a line of uninsured investment products and services. It operates 32 branch offices in North Carol ina, including 5 in Raleigh, 4 in Asheville, 4 in Fayetteville, 3 in Burlington, 3 in Sanford, 2 in Cary, and 1 each in Clayton, Graham, Hickory, Holly Springs, Mebane, Morrisville, Oxford, Pittsboro, Siler City, Wake Forest, and Zebulon. The company was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Raleigh, North Carolina. Capital Bank Corporation is a subsidiary of North American Financial Holdings, Inc.

Best Dividend Stocks To Buy For 2014: United Bancorp Inc.(UBCP)

United Bancorp, Inc. operates as the holding company for The Citizens Savings Bank that provides various commercial and retail banking products and services in the northeastern, eastern, southeastern, and south central Ohio. Its deposit products include interest-bearing deposits, certificates of deposit, demand deposits, savings accounts, NOW accounts, and money market deposits. The company?s loan portfolio comprises commercial, real estate, installment, and consumer loans, as well as letters of credit and lines of credit. It also offers brokerage, night deposit, safe deposit box, and automatic teller machine services. United Bancorp provides banking services through its main office and stand alone operations center in Martins Ferry, Ohio; and 19 branches in Belmont, Harrison, Jefferson, Tuscarawas, Carroll, Athens, Hocking, and Fairfield counties, as well as in the surrounding localities. The company was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Martins Ferry, Ohio.

PFC's tax free bond opens for subscription: ICICIdirect

PFC, interest received on the bond is fully exempt from income tax. The pre-tax yield on the bond for the highest tax bracket investors, therefore, works out to 10.68% and 10.86% for 10 years and 15 years, respectively, higher than 8.5-9% on bank fixed deposit and other stable fixed income instruments. PFC is a government owned company and the NCDs issued are secured in nature, having priority over unsecured lenders. The issue is rated AAA by Crisil and Icra. Hence, the PFC tax free bond appears attractive vis-à-vis other fixed income instruments currently available for long term fixed income investments especially for highest tax bracket investors.

PFC Tranche II tax free bond has a coupon rate of 7.38% and 7.54% for 10 years and 15 years, respectively, for a retail investor and 6.88% for other category of investors, the highest permissible rate that can be offered. The coupon on bond issued under the tax exempt clause is related to the prevailing government securities rates. The ceiling in the coupon rate for an AAA rated issuer is fixed at 65 basis points below the reference G-sec rate* for the retail investor and 115 basis lower for others.

It may be noted that the differential rate for retail investors shall be applicable only to the original allottees. In the event of sale/transfer by the original allottee of bond, the subsequent allottee will get the rates of the other investor's category. Hence, in order to get higher coupon the retail investor has to subscribe in this new issue and hold till maturity.

The bonds will be listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The 10 year and 15 year PFC tax free bond issued last year are currently trading at a yield of around 7.33% and 7.44%, respectively. PFC Tranche I tax free bonds are currently trading at a yield of 7.31% and 7.43%. The Tranche II bonds with 50 bps higher coupon for retail investor are preferred over existing bond as it earns higher accrual. For retail investors, these bonds carry higher yield over most of the existing listed tax free bonds. All the previous 10 year tax free bonds issued last year are currently trading at 7.2-7.4% yield to maturity (YTM) and have provided gains of 5-6% in ~one year to existing investors.

PFC is engaged in financing and promotion of power generation, transmission and distribution including renewable energy projects throughout the country. State electricity boards are the primary borrowers. A lot has been talked about the bad health of the SEBs. However, PFC being a government owned organisation, investors may not be too concerned about the financial health of the company even if the default from the SEBs continues.

We believe the bonds can be looked upon by a retail fixed income investor given its tax exempt status, higher coupon rate and issuance from a government backed company.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts/broking houses/rating agencies on moneycontrol.com are their own, and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

To read the full report click here

Friday, August 30, 2013

pSivida Starts Phase III Study - Analyst Blog

pSivida Corp. (PSDV) recently commenced the first of two planned phase III pivotal studies for its micro-insert for the treatment of chronic, non-infectious posterior uveitis. The candidate will use pSivida'sDurasert technology.

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) cleared pSivida'sinvestigational new drug (IND) application and gave pSivida permission to move this candidate directly into phase III.

As per information provided by pSivida, around 175,000 people in the US suffer from posterior uveitis, resulting in an estimated 30,000 cases of blindness.

Primary endpoints of these trials will be recurrence of posterior uveitis at 12 months. The company said that it will be allowed to use a major part of the data, including safety data, from phase III studies of Iluvien for the treatment of chronic diabetic macular edema (DME).

We note that pSivida had collaborated with Alimera Sciences, Inc. (ALIM) to develop Iluvien for DME. Iluvien is approved in the UK, Austria, France, Germany, Portugal and Spain, while in Italy it has been recommended for approval.

In the first quarter of 2013, Alimera resubmitted a New Drug Application (NDA) for Iluvien after having received a second Complete Response Letter in Nov 2011 from the FDA. The FDA will respond to the NDA by Oct 17, 2013. pSivida has not licensed Alimerathe rights to use this micro-insert for the treatment of uveitis.

pSivida expects to achieve an efficacy level similar to that observed in phase III studies for Retisert but with the same side effect profile observed in phase III studies for Iluvien. We note that Retisert is an FDA approved drug of pSivida for the treatment of posterior uveitis and is licensed to Bausch & Lomb.

pSivida carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Right now, Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) and Biogen Idec Inc. (BIIB) look more attractive with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

Thursday, August 29, 2013

Daily ETF Roundup: FDN and XLP Pop Ahead Of Unofficial ...

Following a holiday-shortened week, U.S. equities logged in their three-session win streak ahead of the unofficial kickoff of the Q2 earnings season. After the closing bell, aluminum giant Alcoa (AA) reported a $119 million second quarter loss due to weak aluminum prices, putting the bellwether's EPS at a mere 7 cents per share. Later this week, financial giants JPMorgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) are slated to post their earnings. So far, analysts have been quite negative on this coming earnings season .



Global Market Overview: FDN and XLP Pop Ahead Of Unofficial Start Of Earnings SeasonAhead of Alcoa's unofficial kickoff of the Q2 earnings season, all three major U.S. equity indexes managed to close in positive territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF rallied 0.66% after its underlying index was within 200 points of reaching its record close of 15,409.39. The S&P 500 ETF rose 0.57%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq ETF inched up 0.11%.

In Europe, markets were broadly higher after Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho announced a cabinet reshuffle over the weekend; the Stoxx Europe 600 rallied 1.4%. Meanwhile, Japan's Nikkei Stock Average dropped 1.4%, while China's Shanghai Composite fell 2.4%.

Bond ETF Roundup

U.S. Treasuries traded higher today following the previous session's massive selloff. Yields on 10-year notes fell 7 basis points, while 30-year bonds and 5-year note yields fell 3 and 9 basis points, respectively .

Commodity Roundup

Crude oil futures traded lower today, but still settled  above $103 a barrel on a stronger dollar and looming concerns over violence in Egypt. In other energy trading, gasoline fell a cent while natural gas jumped 3.4%. Meanwhile, gold futures rose $22.20 to settle at $1,234.90 an ounce.

ETF Chart Of The Day #1: The DJ Internet Index Fund was one of the best performers today, gaining 0.90% during the session. After shares of Google (GOOG) climbed back above $900, this ET! F gapped significantly higher at the open. FDN slid sideways for the remainder of the day, eventually settling at $47.11 a share .

Click To Enlarge

ETF Chart Of The Day #2: The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF also posted a strong performance today, gaining 1.00% during the session. Consumer staples shares were among today's best performers, allowing this ETF to jump significantly higher during the first hour of trading. XLP eventually settled at $40.43 a share .

Click To Enlarge

ETF Fun Fact Of The DayThe best-performing regional strategy over the trailing 1-year period has been the Global Titans ETFdb Portfolio, which has gained 14.92%.



Disclosure: No positions at time of writing.



Bayer Initiates Phase III Study - Analyst Blog

Bayer (BAYRY) recently initiated a phase III study on BAY 94-9027 in children (up to 12 years of age) for the treatment of hemophilia A.

The phase III PROTECT VIII study (PROphylaxis in hemophilia A patienTs via directly pEgylated long-aCTing rFVIII) will evaluate whether the candidate can be used prophylactically to prolong the duration of protection from bleeding for up to one week, while also being used to treat acute bleeds.

The study will be a multicenter, multinational, partially randomized, open-label trial. Bayer intends to enroll around 50 previously treated children from across the world for the phase III study. These children suffering from severe hemophilia A have a history of at least 50 exposure days (ED) with any FVIII product. These children will also be given an option to participate in an optional extension study.

Bayer is also conducting the PROTECT VIII study in adults suffering from hemophilia A. The company has already completed enrolment in this trial.

We remind investors that in May 2013, Bayer had discontinued the phase II/III TRUST (TReatment with Unique recombinant rFVIIa STudy) study on BAY 86-6150. The study was evaluating the efficacy and safety of the candidate in patients suffering from hemophilia A or hemophilia B with inhibitors.

A neutralizing antibody was detected during the course of the study. Since patient safety was the primary objective of the study, Bayer discontinued the BAY 86-6150 trial as a precautionary measure.

Bayer already has Kogenate in its product portfolio for the treatment of haemophilia. We note that companies like Biogen Idec Inc. (BIIB) are also developing therapies targeting the hemophilia market.

Bayer, a large-cap pharma company, presently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). Meanwhile, other large-cap stocks such as Novo Nordisk (NVO) currently look more attractive with a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Other pharma stocks such as Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) carry a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Hot Financial Stocks To Buy Right Now

Sadly, past returns are not indicative of future returns. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC  ) investors were undoubtedly thrilled to see the bank's share price�double in 2012. However, going forward, does the stock have any more room to run?

Since the new year, the stock has lagged the market and most its main competitors, and some investors may be wondering if now is the time to sell the megabank.

In this video, Motley Fool banking analysts David Hanson and Matt Koppenheffer remind investors to temper their expectations for the stock and why it still may be a great investment to hold.�

However, with significant challenges still ahead, it's critical to have a solid understanding of this megabank before adding it to your portfolio. In The Motley Fool's premium research report on B of A, analysts Anand Chokkavelu, CFA, and Matt Koppenheffer, Financials bureau chief, lift the veil on the bank's operations, including detailing three reasons to buy and three reasons to sell. Click here now to claim your copy.

Hot Financial Stocks To Buy Right Now: Marine Petroleum Trust(MARPS)

Marine Petroleum Trust, through its subsidiary, Marine Petroleum Corporation, operates as a royalty trust in the United States. It holds an overriding royalty interest in oil, natural gas, and other mineral leasehold interests located in the Gulf of Mexico acquired by Chevron U.S.A., Inc. The company, through its 32.6% interest in Tidelands Royalty Trust ?B?, owns interest in 5 leases covering 22,948 acres. It has lease interests covering approximately 226,564 gross acres. The company was founded in 1956 and is based in Dallas, Texas.

Hot Financial Stocks To Buy Right Now: Asset Acceptance Capital Corp.(AACC)

Asset Acceptance Capital Corp. engages in the purchase and collection of defaulted and charged-off accounts receivable portfolios from consumer credit originators in the United States. The consumer credit originators primarily include credit card issuers, consumer finance companies, healthcare providers, retail merchants, telecommunications, and utility providers, as well as resellers and other holders of consumer debt; private brokers; and debt resellers. The company periodically sells receivables from these portfolios to unaffiliated companies. It also finances the sales of consumer product retailers; and licenses a collection software application. The company was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Warren, Michigan.

Top High Tech Companies To Invest In Right Now: Rentcash Inc (CSF.TO)

The Cash Store Financial Services Inc. provides alternative financial products and services under Cash Store Financial and Instaloans names in Canada and the United Kingdom. The company primarily offers short-term advances and other financial services. Its financial products and services include payday loans, signature loans, line of credit, injury claims, standard and premium bank accounts, cheque cashing, prepaid credit and debit cards, money transfer services, and payment insurance services. The company was formerly known as Rentcash Inc. and changed its name to The Cash Store Financial Services Inc. in March 2008. The Cash Store Financial Services Inc. was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Edmonton, Canada.

Hot Financial Stocks To Buy Right Now: Center Bancorp Inc.(CNBC)

Center Bancorp, Inc. operates as the holding company for Union Center National Bank that provides various banking services to individual and corporate customers in Union and Morris counties, New Jersey. The company offers interest bearing and non-interest bearing checking accounts, savings accounts, money market accounts, certificates of deposit, and IRA accounts, as well as Christmas club accounts and vacation club accounts. It also provides secured and unsecured loans, mortgage loans, home equity lines of credit, short and medium term loans, letters of credit, working capital loans, and real estate construction loans. In addition, the company offers safe deposit boxes, money orders, and travelers? checks, as well as automated teller machine services, collection services, wire transfers, night depository, and lock box services. Further, the company, through its subsidiary, Center Financial Group LLC, provides financial services, including brokerage services, insurance an d annuities, mutual funds, and financial planning services. Additionally, it offers various money market services; and deals in the U.S. Treasury and U.S. Governmental agency securities, certificates of deposit, commercial paper, and repurchase agreements. As of December 31, 2010, the company had operations in 10 sites in Union County, New Jersey, consisting of 6 sites in Union Township, 1 in Springfield Township, 1 in Berkeley Heights, 1 in Vauxhall, and 1 in Summit; and 1 site in Madison, 1 site in Boonton/Mountain Lakes, and 1 site in Morristown located in Morris County, New Jersey. Center Bancorp, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is based in Union, New Jersey.

Hot Financial Stocks To Buy Right Now: OmniAmerican Bancorp Inc.(OABC)

OmniAmerican Bancorp, Inc. operates as the holding company for OmniAmerican Bank, which is a federally-chartered savings bank that provides banking services to consumers and businesses in Texas. The company involves in accepting deposits from the general public and investing those deposits together with funds generated from operations and borrowings in loans and investments. Its deposit products consist of savings accounts, interest-bearing and noninterest-bearing demand accounts, money market accounts, and certificates of deposit. The company?s loan products include residential real estate loans, such as one-to-four-family and home equity loans; commercial loans consisting of real estate construction, commercial real estate, and commercial business loans; and consumer loans, which include direct automobile, indirect automobile, and unsecured loans. It operates through its main office in Fort Worth, Texas and 15 branches located in the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex and Hood County, Texas. The company was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Will eBay Move Higher?

With shares of eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) trading around $52, is EBAY an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

EBay provides online platforms, tools, and services to help individuals and merchants in online and mobile commerce and payments in the United States and internationally. Its marketplaces segment operates ecommerce platform eBay.com; vertical shopping sites. The company operates through three segments: Marketplaces, Payments, and GSI. Ultimately, through its tools and platforms, EBay assists individuals and small, medium and merchants around the globe engage in online and mobile commerce and payments. As commerce moves online at an increasing rate, companies like eBay are poised to see rising profits.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Mixed

EBay stock has seen a bullish run in the last several years which has taken it to key price levels. At these price levels, investors must make a decision to push the stock higher or sell at these key resistance prices. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, eBay is trading around its key averages which signal neutral price action in the near-term.

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EBAY

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of eBay options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

eBay Options

30.36%

13%

10%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a very small amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

May Options

Average

Average

June Options

Average

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call and put buyers or sellers, neutral over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a very small amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on eBay’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for eBay look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

2012 Q2

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

15.91%

-62.10%

21.62%

140.9%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

14.37%

18.14%

14.77%

23.12%

Earnings Reaction

-5.84%

2.4%

5.45%

8.62%

EBay has seen increasing earnings and revenue figures over most of the last four quarters. From these figures, the markets have generally been happy with eBay’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Poor Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has eBay stock done relative to its peers, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Overstock (NASDAQ:OSTK), Mercadolibre (NASDAQ:MELI), and sector?

eBay

Amazon

Overstock

Mercadolibre

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

3.22%

0.94%

45.35%

26.80%

14.90%

EBay has been a relative underperformer, year-to-date.

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Conclusion

EBay provides online platforms to consumers and businesses who are engaging in Internet commerce at an increasing rate, worldwide. The stock has been a strong performer in recent years and is now trading at critical price levels. Earnings and revenue figures have grown at a reasonable pace which has kept investors satisfied. Relative to its peers and sector, eBay has trailed in year-to-date performance. WAIT AND SEE what eBay does this coming quarter.

Monday, August 26, 2013

Is Oracle a Buy Here?

With shares of Oracle (NASDAQ:ORCL) trading around $30, is ORCL an OUTPERFORM, WAIT AND SEE or STAY AWAY? Let's analyze the stock with the relevant sections of our CHEAT SHEET investing framework:

T = Trends for a Stock’s Movement

Oracle is a provider of enterprise software and computer hardware products and services. The company's software, hardware systems, and services businesses develop, manufacture, markets, host, and support database and middleware software, applications software, and hardware systems, with the latter consisting primarily of computer server and storage products. It is organized into three businesses: software, hardware systems, and services. Information technology products and services are seeing increasing demand due to the surge of companies in developing economies. As businesses continue to grow, look for Oracle to offer the support required that will send it to rising profits.

T = Technicals on the Stock Chart are Weak

Oracle stock has seen a consistent uptrend over the last several years. The stock is now seeing a sharp pullback after a couple of negative earnings reports. Analyzing the price trend and its strength can be done using key simple moving averages. What are the key moving averages? The 50-day (pink), 100-day (blue), and 200-day (yellow) simple moving averages. As seen in the daily price chart below, Oracle is trading below its rising averages which signal neutral to bearish price action in the near-term.

ORCL

(Source: Thinkorswim)

Taking a look at the implied volatility (red) and implied volatility skew levels of Oracle options may help determine if investors are bullish, neutral, or bearish.

Implied Volatility (IV)

30-Day IV Percentile

90-Day IV Percentile

Oracle Options

25.16%

23%

20%

What does this mean? This means that investors or traders are buying a small amount of call and put options contracts, as compared to the last 30 and 90 trading days.

Put IV Skew

Call IV Skew

July Options

Steep

Average

August Options

Steep

Average

As of today, there is an average demand from call buyers or sellers and high demand by put buyers or low demand by put sellers, all neutral to bearish over the next two months. To summarize, investors are buying a small amount of call and put option contracts and are leaning neutral to bearish over the next two months.

On the next page, let’s take a look at the earnings and revenue growth rates and the conclusion.

E = Earnings Are Increasing Quarter-Over-Quarter

Rising stock prices are often strongly correlated with rising earnings and revenue growth rates. Also, the last four quarterly earnings announcement reactions help gauge investor sentiment on Oracle’s stock. What do the last four quarterly earnings and revenue growth (Y-O-Y) figures for Oracle look like and more importantly, how did the markets like these numbers?

2013 Q1

2012 Q4

2012 Q3

2012 Q2

Earnings Growth (Y-O-Y)

16.49%

6.12%

23.26%

13.89%

Revenue Growth (Y-O-Y)

0.28%

0.90%

3.43%

-2.30%

Earnings Reaction

-2.58%

-9.67%

3.68%

0.65%

Oracle has seen increasing earnings and revenue figures over the last four quarters. From these numbers, the markets have grown to expect more from Oracle’s recent earnings announcements.

P = Poor Relative Performance Versus Peers and Sector

How has Oracle stock done relative to its peers, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), SAP (NYSE:SAP), International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM), and sector?

Oracle

Microsoft

SAP

International Business Machines

Sector

Year-to-Date Return

-10.11%

25.98%

-9.50%

1.80%

2.16%

Oracle has been a poor relative performer, year-to-date.

Conclusion

Oracle is an international supplier of software and hardware products and services to companies operating in various industries. The stock has displayed a consistent uptrend in recent years but is now seeing a pullback after a couple of negative earnings reports. Over the last four quarters, earnings and revenue figures have been rising, however, investors in the company have grown to expect more. Relative to its peers and sector, Oracle has been a poor relative performer, year-to-date. WAIT AND SEE what Oracle does in coming quarters.

Sunday, August 25, 2013

Warning: Stocks Are Overbought (And Here's What To Do)

Stocks are definitely overbought. Overbought markets occur when prices move up sharply, and based on current charts, prices appear to be too high.

 

This situation actually occurs fairly often. Traders might be tempted to enter a short trade expecting the gains to be at least partially reversed. But that idea has led to large losses for many traders over the years.

Prices might be irrational, but as traders, we need to remember that the fact that behavior is irrational is irrelevant. Economist John Maynard Keynes supposedly said, "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

Traders use momentum indicators like the stochastics to decide when prices are overbought. The monthly chart of SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSE: DIA) is shown below, and we can see that stochastics has been overbought for more than a year. Based on the stochastics indicator, we can see that bull markets do seem to stay irrational much longer than a short trader could stay solvent.

DIA is being used because it reflects the price changes in the Dow, which has a price history extending back more than 100 years. When using monthly data, it is usually best to use the Dow because it has so much history.

We can also test what happens after a stochastics buy signal. At the end of May, DIA gave a stochastics buy signal while the indicator was above 90. In the past, this signal has been followed by a brief period of underperformance and then significant outperformance.

The chart below compares the relative performance of buying after a stochastics buy signal when the indicator is above 90 on a monthly chart. Performance is relative to what the Dow has done at all other times. For example, if we normally see a three-month gain of 2% in the Dow, if the three-month performance is 4% after this buy signal, the relative performance would be 2.0. If the post-signal average gain is 1%, the relative performance would be 0.5.

In this chart, we see that six months after these buy signals, prices do begin to outperform. This is a visual representation of the idea that the buy signal is followed by a brief pullback that usually lasts about six months. After the pullback, six to 18 months after the initial signal, the Dow has performed significantly better than average.

Not all trades will be winners, but this indicator does offer reliable signals. One year after a stochastics buy signal in an overbought market, for example, the Dow has been higher 82.4% of the time.

Traders looking for a pullback in the stock market might get exactly what they expect. However, that pullback should be considered a buying opportunity rather than the start of a bear market.

Call options could offer an excellent way to trade this idea with less risk. Call options give the buyer the right to buy 100 shares of a stock at a certain price at any time before the option expires. Deep in-the-money calls are options with a strike price that is below the current market price. These calls are more expensive than out-of-the-money calls, which are trading above the current market price. One advantage to the more expensive options is that deep in-the-money calls are more likely to be profitable at expiration.

Calls on DIA with expiration dates in March are available. A call with a strike price of $145 is in the money right now and is trading at about $11.55. This option will be profitable if DIA trades above $156.55, or about 2% above the recent price. The loss on this trade is limited to the amount paid for the option, but a stop-loss should help reduce the risk.

Based on the stochastics buy signal, we expect DIA to trade up to at least $160 before next March. At that price, the call option would be worth at least $15.

We also expect a pullback and would be comfortable entering a buy-limit order to buy this option under $9. It should fall that low if DIA reached $150 on a pullback of about 3%.

Like we said, there's a chance we'll see a pullback soon, but it could get worse. There is a lot of discussion today that we are reaching the peak of a "triple top." The major indices are currently trading near critical levels. In fact, in the years 2000 and 2007, they peaked near these levels. 

However, there is a chance the market will continue higher, in which case, this order will never be filled. But this is a relatively low-risk, high-probability trade if the order is filled. If the order is not filled within 30 days, we recommend cancelling the order and moving on to the next trading opportunity.

Action to Take -->

-- Buy DIA March 2014 145 Calls at $9 or less

-- Set stop-loss at $6

-- Set price target at $15 for a potential 67% gain in seven months or less

This article was originally published at ProfitableTrading.com
Warning: Stocks Are Overbought (And Here's What to Do)

P.S. -- There is a lot more to say about the potential triple top that could send the stock market tumbling -- and how to make money regardless of what the market does. Click here for details.

A.P. Pharma, Inc. Reports Planned Name Change to “Heron Therapeutics, Inc.” and Application to List on NASDAQ Capital Market (OTCBB:APPA)

appa

A.P. Pharma, Inc. Inc. (APPA)

Today, APPA has shed (-1.27%) -0.005 at $.390 with 848,803 shares in play thus far (ref. google finance Delayed: 1:08PM EDT August 14, 2013).

A.P. Pharma, Inc. previously reported it has filed an application to list the Company's common stock on the NASDAQ Capital Market. In addition, the Company's Board of Directors has, subject to stockholder approval, approved proposals to rename the Company “Heron Therapeutics, Inc.” and to implement a reverse split of its common stock. The reverse stock split will be implemented in support of the Company's NASDAQ listing application at a specific ratio within the range of 1:10 to 1:20, as fixed by the board following stockholder approval.

A.P. Pharma, Inc. Inc. (APPA) 5 day chart:

appachart

Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac Profits: A Creative Accounting Technique

The recent good news about Fannie Mae Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Freddie Mac's $10 billion profit for the second quarter follows similar previous reports and is being hailed as justification for the government's seizure and bailout of the two mortgage giants. More important, it is redemption for Barney Frank and others in Congress who encouraged them to guarantee subprime mortgages to unqualified borrowers, which lead to the housing collapse in 2008.

In fact, the two organizations have repaid $146 billion of the $188 billion advanced to them since they were taken over. In addition, some $90 billion of "profits" were paid to the Treasury that went toward U.S. debt and deficit reduction.

What a wonderful result…or maybe, not.

Does anyone remember that the biggest buyer of Fannie and Freddie mortgages is none other than the Federal Reserve Bank, a  government organization that has no bottom line profit measure. The Fed, with its quantitative easing program, is simply buying $40 billion monthly in packaged mortgage MBS securities valued at prices that are giving Fannie that wonderful profit.

Only time will tell whether the Fed gains or looses on these securities. Estimates of their losses on their $1.1 trillion in mortgage securities holdings range as high as $150 billion, but as stated before, they have no bottom line reporting so we will never know.

By way of comparison, suppose General Motors General Motors decided to put into a leasing subsidiary all those Volt cars it couldn't sell and did so at a price that gave them an instant billion dollar profit. Generally accepted accounting principles would require GM to eliminate this profit from its financial results since a company cannot report profits from self-dealing. But alas, this is the government and the government can make its own rules, as we saw in how GM was 'saved.'

Special Offer: Why bother with stocks or Treasurys when you can clean up in convertibles, preferreds and MLPs? Earn 8% yields on top of chunky capital gains. Click here for recommended buys in Forbes/Lehmann Income Securities Investor.

We see repeated use of creative accounting by government in its daily activities, from how it defines inflation, medical care cost, budget cuts and budget deficits to name just a few of the more prominent ones.

The Fannie and Freddie accounting for "profits" and its reporting as a reduction of the deficit and national debt represents a truly creative accounting technique. We see the Federal Reserve Bank creating money out of thin air, using it to buy newly revalued mortgages from Fannie and Freddie who then use the sales proceeds to pay back loans and a dividend to the Treasury, who declares this a deficit and debt reduction.

Economists think you can't print your way to economic prosperity. Taxpayers are being led to believe that government bailouts are a profit making remedy. Fannie and Freddie shareholders and unsecured debt holders think they are being robbed of profits that rightly belong to them. Poor fools all!

Saturday, August 24, 2013

Best Canadian Companies For 2014

Modules of Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ) have been selected by Argand Energy Solutions for their solar project located in Louisburg, NC. In collaboration with Horne Brothers Construction, Inc., Argand Energy Solutions began construction of the 2.3 megawatt (MW) project in Jun 2013. System grid connection is scheduled for Aug 2013.

The utility solar power system will utilize approximately 7,700 of Canadian Solar's CS6X-300P photovoltaic (PV) modules. CS6X-300P PV modules are polycrystalline silicon modules that carry a warranty period of 10 years on materials and workmanship and a 25-year warranty on linear power output performance.

With power tolerances in the range of 0% to 2.0%, these modules have maximum system voltage of 1000V. With respect to quality control inspections and testing, these modules have received key international certifications. Post completion, these highly efficient modules will allow the project to power approximately 460 homes.

Best Canadian Companies For 2014: Higher One Holdings Inc.(ONE)

Higher One Holdings, Inc. provides technology and payment services in the United States. It offers a suite of disbursement and payment solutions for higher education institutions and their students. The company provides OneDisburse Refund Management product that offers higher education institutional clients with a technology service for streamlining the student refund disbursement process. It also offers CASHNet Payment suite that includes software-as-a-service products and services, such as ePayment to securely accept online payments for tuition, charges, and fees from students through credit card, pinless debit, and ACH; eBill to automate payer billing and processing functions; MyPaymentPlan to personalize students? payment plans; eMarket that allows academic, athletic, and other departments to take alumni donations, sell event tickets and other merchandise, and accept payments of event and conference registration fees; and Cashiering to operate and manage cashiering fu nctions, back office payments, and campus-wide departmental deposits. In addition, the company provides OneDisburse ID, which offers an option to combine the company?s debit card with the institution?s ID cards; OneDisburse Payroll to distribute payroll and other employee-related payments; OneDisburse PLUS product to distribute Parent PLUS loan refunds to parents on behalf of the school; and Financial Intelligence to students with an online class. Further, it provides student-oriented banking services to campus communities. Additionally, the company offers OneAccount product for students, as well as faculty, staff, and alumni, with an FDIC-insured online checking account and a debit MasterCard ATM card. Higher One Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in New Haven, Connecticut.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Robert Holmes]

    Company Profile: Higher One offers integrated financial aid disbursement services for universities. The company provides services to about 5.8 million students, ensuring they receive financial aid refunds quickly, can pay tuition and bills online, make on-campus and community purchases.

    Share Price: $19.99 (Dec. 6)

    2011 Return: -1.2%

    Investment Thesis: William Blair analysts say they like Higher One because the company has an attractive, predictable business model with high incremental margins and solid cash flow conversion. It also helps that management recently said that the company's pipeline "remains extremely robust."

    "We believe there could be upside down the road from the company increasingly being viewed as a true bank alternative (e.g., more direct deposit), through acquisitions, by monetizing the graduate opportunity, and as a takeover candidate," the analysts write.

    However, there is high short interest in Higher One's stock -- William Blair analysts say it would take about 30 days to cover. That's due to a number of unresolved headwinds, including competition, fees, potential cuts in Pell grants, slowing enrollment growth in the U.S. and a bank partner.

    While finding a bank partner is the biggest question market, William Blair analysts say that a positive announcement, which could come in the next three months, would be a huge catalyst, especially considering the massive short interest.

Best Canadian Companies For 2014: Nu Skin Enterprises Inc.(NUS)

Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc. develops and distributes anti-aging personal care products and nutritional supplements worldwide. The company sells its personal care products under the Nu Skin brand; and nutritional supplements under the Pharmanex brand. Its personal care product line includes core systems, targeted treatments, total care, cosmetic, and Epoch, a product formulated with botanical ingredients. The company?s nutritional supplements product line comprises micronutrient supplements, targeted solution supplements, and weight management products. It also sells Vitameal, which are nutritious meal products for starving children or purchased for personal food storage. In addition, the company offers other products and services consisting of digital content storage, water purifiers, and other household products. It sells its products primarily through a network of independent distributors in north Asia, the Americas, Greater China, Europe, and the south Asia/Pacific. The c ompany also operates retail stores to sell its products in China. As of December 31, 2010, Nu Skin Enterprises operated 40 stores throughout China. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Provo, Utah.

Top 10 Low Price Stocks To Buy For 2014: Iamgold Corporation(IAG)

IAMGOLD Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of mineral resource properties worldwide. It primarily explores for gold, silver, zinc, copper, niobium, diamonds, and other metals. The company holds interests in eight operating gold mines, a niobium producer, a diamond royalty, and exploration and development projects located in Africa and the Americas. Its advanced exploration and development projects include the Westwood project in Canada; and the Quimsacocha project, which consists of 3 mining concessions covering an aggregate area of approximately 8,030 hectares in Ecuador. The company was formerly known as IAMGOLD International African Mining Gold Corporation and changed its name to IAMGOLD Corporation in June 1997. IAMGOLD Corporation was founded in 1990 and is based in Toronto, Canada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Christopher Barker]

    Although I have not shed my long-standing contention that Yamana Gold offers one of the more deeply discounted vehicles for long-term gold exposure, lately my outlook for IAMGOLD has turned particularly bullish. With a looming spin-off of a 10% to 20% stake in the company's reliably profitable Niobec niobium mine, and the recent sale of its interest in a pair of high-cost gold operations in Ghana for $667 million, IAMGOLD finds itself in terrific financial shape to execute an aggressive $1.2 billion expansion imitative at existing operations.

    Considering the $1.6 billion net asset value (after tax) that IAMGOLD recently assessed for the Niobec mine alone, and a presumed hoard of more than $1.2 billion (in cash, cash equivalents, and gold bullion held for investment), at a market capitalization of $6.9 billion I find extreme comfort in the market's resulting valuation for IAMGOLD's 15.2 million ounces of attributable gold reserves.

Best Canadian Companies For 2014: Natural Gas(NG)

NovaGold Resources Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties primarily in North America. The company primarily explores for gold, silver, copper, zinc, and lead ores. It holds interests in the Donlin Creek property covering 81,361 acres and the Ambler property comprising 90,614 acres located in Alaska; and the Galore Creek property comprising 293,838 acres located in northwestern British Columbia, Canada. The company was formerly known as NovaCan Mining Resources (1985) Limited and changed its name to NovaGold Resources Inc. in March 1987. NovaGold Resources Inc. was founded in 1984 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.

Advisors' Opinion:
  • [By Vodicka]

    Novagold Resources Inc New Ord (AMEX:NG): This equity had 11,424,918 shares sold short as of Aug 31st, as compared to 11,493,664 on Aug 15th, which represents a change of -68,746 shares, or -0.6%. Days to cover for this company is 4 and average daily trading volume is 2,735,045. About the equity: NovaGold Resources Inc. is a mineral exploration company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, explores and develops mineral properties in North America. NovaGold primarily focuses on gold properties, which may include copper, silver and zinc resources.

  • [By Holly LaFon] John Paulson bough 20, 181,818 shares of NovaGold in the first quarter of 2010 at an average of $6 per share; he added 26,200 shares in the third quarter at an average of $9 per share, and 2,746,800 in the fourth quarter at an average of $9 per share. According to GuruFocus Real Time Picks, in February he increased this holding 30.49% and now owns 29,954,818 shares or 10.8% of the company.

    NovaGold Resources is a gold and copper company engaged in the exploration and development of mineral properties in Alaska and Western Canada. NovaGold has a market cap of $2.26 billion; its shares were traded at around $7.68 with and P/S ratio of 5622. NovaGold had an annual average earnings growth of 31.1% over the past 10 years.

    It is not a surprise that Paulson would increase his gold holdings. He said in his 2011 investor letter that ��y gold fund will top all others.��He added:
    We anticipate that the divergence between gold and gold equities will narrow, given the booming earnings that a number of the major gold producers are delivering...We remain excited about the outlook for the Paulson Gold Funds over the next few years. Central banks have engaged in unprecedented amounts of quantitative easing, while investors are increasingly losing faith in paper currencies. The sovereign debt crisis in Europe continues to threaten the stability of the global financial system. In this environment, gold stands out as the most stable and credible currency alternative and we would argue that the potential upside in gold outweighs the potential downside. Gold equities are attractively priced given the strong financial performance than many of these companies are delivering... The Paulson Gold Funds, which are designed to outperform gold in a rising gold price environment, provides investors with a hedge against inflation and more.NovaGold does not have the robust earnings Paulson speaks of. But for the year ended Nov. 30, 2011, the company�� loss narrowed to $153 million, from $203.5 million, for 2010. ! Revenues declined to $111 million for 2011 from $172 for 2010. The company had $66.8 mil

Honoring Advisors Who Serve(d): July 4th, 2013

On Memorial Day, the nation paused to remember those who, in the words of Abraham Lincoln, gave “the last full measure of devotion.” AdvisorOne honored those advisors and partners to advisors—and one famous non-advisor who influences the advisory world, PIMCO’s Bill Gross—who served in the armed forces of the United States.

This is the third year we’ve published this slideshow that is meant, in a small way, to thank all those who served their country. For this Fourth of July edition we’re featuring seven “new” advisors and four from previous Advisors Who Serve(d) slideshows.

We’ve created a special landing page for you to view our previous slideshows as well. The seven new people on the following pages responded to our call this year to share the particulars of their service—some in the past and some still serving—and, in most instances, some photos of themselves when they were in service. 

Most telling to us, however, were the vets’ responses to how their military service helped prepared them for their advisory careers. We began this series of slideshows in 2011 because anecdotally there seemed to be a large percentage of advisors, both men and women, who had served in one of the branches of the military over the years but in many cases had not received the appreciation they were due for their service.

The comments of this group on their military experiences speak for themselves—profound and humorous, patriotic and often self-deprecating, but humbly proud of their service as well.

(Check out previous Advisors Who Serve(d) installments from 2011 and 2012 for Memorial Day and Fourth of July.)

John Grover WilsonName: John Grover Wilson

Title/Company: Managing Director, Senior Investment Advisor — Raymond James & Associates

Branch: USAF-retired

Rank held at beginning of service and at end: Lt. at beginning, Col. at the end

Service Dates: 1968-1992

Work you did: Fighter Pilot, F-4, RF-4 and others

Brief story that stands out from your service time: Hold the Air Medal (2) and Distinguished Flying Cross from serving in Vietnam. I’m presently the Chief Chaplain of the Volunteer State Veterans Honor Guard. In my spare time, I presided over 250 military funerals with honor. I am presently on the steering committee for the Medal of Honor Society Conference in 2014 to be held in Knoxville. Flew two tours in SEA. Funny story: I was a White House Social Aide during the Nixon administration.

David S. ChangName: David S. Chang

Title/Company: President, CEO — WealthBridge

Branch: Army

Rank held at beginning of service and at end: Cadet; Major

Service Dates: 1998-2008 (Active duty) 2009 to Present (Hawaii Army National Guard)

Work you did: West Point Cadet, Armor Officer, Ground Scout Platoon Leader, Military Intelligence Officer

Brief story that stands out from your service time: I spent 15 months in Northern Iraq. The work hours were grueling but what made life bearable were the soldiers I served with, we were all one big happy family. I knew that my XO (executive officer) went to high school with Rachael Ray. He knew I was a big fan of hers, especially since I am an eater! During Christmas my XO brought me up to the front of our commanders and staff after a normal meeting and surprised me with an autographed photo of Rachael Ray made out to me! It was one of the best Christmas gifts I got, I am very appreciative that he took the time to reach out to her and she in turn took time to write to me. It was a definite morale booster!

John Thomas DeutschName: John Thomas Deutsch

Title/Company: Senior VP, Investments — Raymond James & Associates

Branch: U.S. Navy

Rank held at beginning of service and at end: Seaman to CWO(4)

Service Dates: 1962-1985

Work you did: Avionics Commissioned Warrant Officer W-4

Brief story that stands out from your service time: Too many great shipmates and funny stories for one to stand out but, late in my career, I served on the USS Coral Sea CV-43. Our Battle Group as well as the Nimitz’s were stationed in the Indian Ocean in support of the Iranian hostages rescue attempt on Aug. 24, 1980. Tragically, the operation was unsuccessful and ended with the loss of aircraft and eight US service members. Memorably, I was walking on the flight deck with support attack aircraft fully loaded out after midnight when our Captain, Dick Dunleavy, announced on the 1MC that we would be standing down because of the failed outcome. That was one of the first publicized uses of special forces to effect U.S. policy objectives. Today, 30 years hence, both Iran and heroic special forces operators remain in our daily headlines and in my memory.

Kevin HottName: Kevin Hott

Title/Company: Financial Advisor — Merrill Lynch

Branch: U.S. Navy

Rank held at beginning of service and at end: E1-E4/Seaman Recruit to Petty Officer Third Class

Service Dates: 1997-2001

Work you did: Gas Turbine Systems Electrician

Brief story that stands out from your service time: The first morning after arriving at Recruit Training Center Great Lakes I found myself being awoken abruptly by the Drill Instructor. He was screaming in my face, nose-to-nose, after I overslept by a “few minutes.” I learned quickly when you’re the only one not in formation you get the wrong kind of attention. While we were deployed in the Mediterranean, I remember the roller coaster of emotions we experienced when we all learned of the USS Cole bombing. Oh, and how can I forget the swim call we had in the middle of the Mediterranean? When you have folks jumping off the side of a destroyer into 13,000 feet of water it’s not a pleasant experience when you’re in the water and realize the ship isn’t completely stopped. 

David LatchName: David Latch

Title/Company: President — Frederick Advisors

Branch: U.S. Army

Rank held at beginning of service and at end:  E-3, O-4

Service Dates: 1977-1999

Work you did: Aircraft Maintenance, then Medical Logistics

Brief story that stands out from your service time: I was nearing the end of my first enlistment and was unsure about re-enlisting. My NCIOC, whom I really didn’t think much of, told me to write down the pros and cons of both staying in and getting out. Once I did that, I became a “lifer.”

James SchwartzName: James Schwartz

Title/Company: Senior Advisor — Strategic Wealth Advisors

Branch: U.S. Air Force

Rank held at beginning of service and at end: 2nd Lt to Captain

Service Dates: 1985-1997

Work you did: A-10 and F-16 Fighter Pilot

Brief story that stands out from your service time: The first year in the USAF was spent in pilot training near Del Rio, Texas. While learning to fly the T-37, student pilots must become proficient in acrobatics, including loops, barrel rolls and split-S's. The split-S is a maneuver where the pilot rolls the jet upside down then pulls back on the stick forcing the jet to fly straight down then continue to a level flight path heading the opposite direction (think of the second half of a loop). As I went through my split-S maneuver and the nose of the aircraft was going straight down toward the earth, my instructor, sitting to my right, said, “Jim, you better pull a little harder.”

And so I did—probably a little too quickly and a little too hard. The G's (acceleration one feels on their body at the bottom of a roller coaster) increased from zero to 3, then 4, and finally 5. At 5 G's a 150-pound person weighs 750 pounds! Well, my instructor wasn’t prepared for such a quick transition to 5 G's and he passed out! I finished my split-S back to level flight but it took my instructor some time to regain consciousness and figure out where he was (later he divulged to me that when he came to he thought we had crashed). At this point the flight was over (due to the loss of consciousness episode) and I flew him back to the base where after two days he was back in the saddle. As I look back at that incident, as a new student pilot, I have to say I was a little scared when I realized my instructor (the person I counted on to be there when I screwed up) had lost consciousness and it was up to me to bring him home.

Robert Peterson with co-worker Barb EmenhiserName: Robert S. Peterson

Title/Company: Vice President, Investments — Raymond James & Associates

Branch: U.S. Army

Rank held at beginning of service and at end: Pvt. to Sergeant

Service Dates: 1970-1973

Work you did: Military Intelligence, Linguist

Brief story that stands out from your service time: I was trained as an interrogator and a linguist in Laotian. I spent most of my time teaching English to foreign nationals.

Bill Gross (left) standing tall in the bridge.Name: Bill Gross

Title/Company: PIMCO - founder and co-chief investment officer

Branch: U.S. Navy

Rank held at beginning of service and at end: LT JG – Lieutenant, Junior Grade

Service Dates:  1967 - 1970

Work you did: N/A

Brief story that stands out from your service time: I arrived at the Pensacola Naval Air Station ready to fulfill my enlistment and ready to become a fighter pilot. And like all raw recruits, we were put in the capable hands of a drill sergeant. Remember, the drill sergeant’s duty is to humiliate and harass us to the breaking point and beyond. And me, the cocky college boy, was so shaken by the experience that it was one of the military moments I remember most vividly. I spent half the night cleaning my rifle, and failing the inspections nonetheless. It took me so long to make up my bunk to my sergeant’s specifications that I slept on the floor. I did push-ups and chin-ups and marched and ran obstacle courses but my sergeant was never satisfied. “You’ll never fly a jet Mr. Gross!,” he screamed. “BLIMPS are more your style!” I ended up flying neither.

Meredith Schneider in Bosnia

Meredith Schneider

Title/Company: Principal — Schneider Wealth Management

Branch/Rank: US Army - 2nd Lt through Captain

Service Dates: June ’92 - Aug. ’96

Work you did: Platoon Leader, Maintenance Officer, S-1, Civil Affairs Officer

Brief story that stands out from your service time: I am honored to have had the opportunity to meet so many people from all over the country who served with great dedication. I will never forget the "Any Solider" letters we received while in Bosnia. Some days they were the only link to life outside of our tents since we had no phone, television, newspaper, Internet, and often no mail from loved ones. I remember a letter in particular from a young boy in Rhode Island who wrote in reply to a letter I wrote back to him. He wrote, "Receiving your letter was the happiest day of my life." Little did he know how happy I was to receive his letter of support.

Harold Evensky

Harold Evensky

One of the few people in the advisor community who is identified by one name, like a Brazilian soccer player, Evensky is the chairman and cofounder of the wealth management firm of Evensky & Katz in Coral Gables, Fla. He is the author of numerous books, is now an adjunct professor at Texas Tech University and among his honors has been membership of the IA25. But Harold is also a veteran, serving in the Medical Corps of the U.S. Army as a Captain from 1968-1971.

Joni Youngwirth

Joni Youngwirth

Folks from Commonwealth Financial Network know Youngwirth quite well, as do other advisors who have benefited from her practice management knowledge delivered in speeches at national conferences, or who have read some of her prescriptions in the pages of Investment Advisor, for instance. 

They may know of her practical, disciplined bent when it comes to practice management, but what they may not know is that this partner to advisors previously served with the U.S. Air Force, rising to the rank of first lieutenant.

Youngwirth is Commonwealth Financial Network's managing principal, practice management, and a regular contributor to Investment Advisor.

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Check out previous Advisors Who Serve(d) installments from 2011 and 2012 for Memorial Day and Fourth of July.

We know there are more of you out there who served, so please consider adding your name and story to the growing list of Advisors Who Serve(d) by filling out this simple questionnaire at AdvisorOne.

SEC Nominees Vote Tabled Due to Lack of Quorum

The Senate Banking Committee failed Tuesday to get enough members for a quorum in order to consider several high-profile nominations, including the two new appointees to be SEC Commissioners, Kara Stein and Michael Piwowar.

SEC Chairwoman Mary Jo White (Photo: AP)SEC Chairwoman Mary Jo White (right) was also scheduled to be confirmed to serve a full five-year term, expiring June 5, 2019. She was initially confirmed in early April to serve out the remainder of former SEC Chairwoman Mary Schapiro’s term.

A Senate Banking Committee spokesperson told ThinkAdvisor that it was “purely a scheduling issue” that prevented a majority of the senators from gathering to vote on the nominations, which also included Rep. Melvin Watt of North Carolina to be director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency. “This was a hard morning to get everyone in the same place at the same time, with the swearing in ceremony for Sen. [Edward] Markey [of Massachusetts], all the nuclear option negotiations [over some of President Barack Obama's other nominees], etc.,” the spokesperson said.

The nominations were to occur starting at 10:30 a.m. on Tuesday, but the senators wrapped up quickly after seeing there was a lack of a quorum and headed to the Senate floor for a cloture vote on Richard Cordray as director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The Senate voted 71-29 soon after to advance Cordray's nomination, a move that Republicans had been blocking, and he was confirmed by the Senate later that day.

The vote on the SEC and FHA nominations will occur Thursday, just before Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke appears before the Senate Banking Committee to give his semiannual monetary policy report.

Obama picked Stein, an aide to Sen. Jack Reed, D-R.I., to replace SEC Commissioner Elisse Walter, and Piwowar, an economist on the Senate Banking Committee’s staff, to replace Troy Paredes, a Republican.

---

Check out SEC Nominees Support Changing ‘Neither Admit Nor Deny’ Policy on ThinkAdvisor.

Friday, August 23, 2013

Smart Niche Model Leads to Succession Planning Success

Milwaukee, Wis.-based Cleary Gull is one fine organization, according to Tiburon Strategic Advisors’ Chip Roame.

Roame routinely refers to the “genius” of the firm at his popular CEO summits held twice each year. The reason, he says, is the effective use of the niche market business model they employ; specifically airline pilots. Like physicians, senior pilots have a lot of money, quite a few outside business interests, and a desperate need for quality financial advice. By familiarizing itself with each airlines' retirement planning offerings and policies, the firm has attracted a large following, as well as the assets under management that go with it.

Now two Dallas-based firms have taken it a step further, merging in the airline pilot-focused RIA space to ensure succession planning continuity.

Smith Anglin Financial, an RIA managing $357 million in AUM, announced Wednesday that it had merged with Rhoads Lucca Capital Management in a “succession planning-centric deal” that brings the combined AUM of the RIA to about $500M.

The transaction took over a year to complete due to the very specific criteria the selling firm, Rhoads Lucca, had in selecting a partner. 

“I cannot stress enough how important it was to us to find the right fit for our practice – important for our clients, for our employees and for ourselves, ” John Rhoads, partner at Rhoads Lucca, said in a statement. “We outlined a set of criteria that was challenging, to put it mildly, and frankly the choice we made in the end would have appealed to me even if I planned on remaining with the business for another 10 years.”

The criteria for the deal included finding a fit for Rhoads Lucca’s traditional RIA active and retired pilot clients as well as for the pilots’ 401(k) Autopilot accounts managed by the firm. Smith Anglin’s tax planning proficiencies were also a very appealing element for the seller. 

“We are proud to welcome John Rhoads, David Lucca and their team aboard as our partners, and we have a tremendous amount of respect for the business they’ve built serving commercial pilots,” added Steve Anglin, managing partner of Smith Anglin.  “The fact that we were the final choice for them among many well qualified competitors is a great honor.”

The combined firms help commercial pilots from Southwest, United, Delta, USAirways/American and FedEx, among others, to navigate their retirement and pre-retirement. While Dallas based, they serve clients in 45 states. Both firms claim to “deploy a defensively oriented investment strategy for clients,” another reason the union appealed to both.

Advice Dynamics Partners, which brokered the transaction, says it believes there are certain “core truths” about every independent advisory space transaction:

“What we learned in going through this process was that it is one thing to state that you are ready to acquire, or to execute a succession plan, thereby triggering a wave of potential unions, and quite another to have a true veteran guide you through it every step of the way – you don’t want to wing it when it comes to these things,” Anglin added.  

Top 4 Financial Jobs You Can Do From Home

For many people, being able to work at home gives them the best of both worlds; they have the job security and income of a regular full-time job, without the time, expense and hassle of going to an office. The financial industry has seen an increasing number of jobs in this sector moving to become available for telecommuters. These jobs range from full-time corporate positions, to opportunities for entrepreneurs and independent contractors. In this article, we'll provide a breakdown, in no particular order, of the four highest-paying positions available in this sector.

Tutorial: Starting a Small Business

Day Trader
A day trader holds positions in stocks for a very short period of time, often from minutes to hours, and makes numerous trades each day. In most cases, all open trades are closed before the end of the day.

While this "job" does not offer a guaranteed salary or other benefits, it does provide those who are successful at it with potentially huge returns on capital. Some traders can post returns of 300% or more in a year, while others will see much less. Being a successful day trader requires more than a lucky guess; day trading requires specific skills and tools, available capital and emotional stamina. In order to achieve success, day traders must have:

A long-term trading strategy and access to up-to-the-minute market information, including real-time quotes. The ability to correctly interpret the short-term movements of the markets. Continuous access to multiple live news sources, such as CNBC. Analytical software, which allows day traders to discover trading patterns much faster and reduce trade execution times. This life is not for everyone. Traders must have the stomach, and the cash reserves, to weather heavy, short-term losses and be able to keep going. Some traders focus chiefly on equities, while others speculate in derivatives or foreign currencies. While successful day traders can become quite wealthy, it is virtually impossible to quantify any kind of average compensation to them, as even the best traders will see substantial fluctuations in their respective returns, from one year to the next. If you need to know you'll have a constant and steady income, this is not the career for you. (For more on day trading, Day Trading Strategies For Beginners.)

Financial Writer
While this position is perhaps one of the least publicized in the industry, talented and experienced writers are constantly in demand. There has been an explosion of financial news, literature and websites over the last several years, as well as an increased demand for professional financial education and training.

This job is perhaps one of the easiest to do from home, as all written material is easily deliverable electronically via email and web servers. There is rarely a shortage of work for a competent writer, especially one who can produce good copy under a tight deadline. Good financial writers and editors can command up to several hundred dollars per article, and there are even some jobs that can pay salaries in the range of $70,000 to $90,000 per year.

To achieve the top salary as a financial writer, you'll usually need a master's degree in management, finance, economics or journalism. Professional experience in the financial industry will set an individual apart from the competition. However, some writers have become successful just by having the ability to write professional-level copy consistently, about financial topics that are well-researched and financially sound. (To find out more profiting from your pen, see Becoming A Financial Writer.)

Independent Financial Planner
Although not common, it is possible for independent financial planners and advisors to base their offices out of their homes, as long as their homes provide a sufficiently professional backdrop for their practices. Obviously, a client would be more interested in seeing a financial planner in a larger house, in a more affluent neighborhood with a dedicated area for the home business, than a poorly maintained apartment in a neglected area of town. In addition, some business licenses will only allow one client to be at your home at one time, so if this creates a legal issue for you, having clients come to your home may not be the best option.

There are also positional issues to consider, such as parking, access for persons with handicaps, restrooms and so forth. Furthermore, a key factor in deciding whether to take this approach will be whether the advisor's family is willing to share the house with a business.

At the same time, advisors who are able to make this arrangement work for them and their clients, can substantially reduce their overhead expenses as well as eliminate their commuting costs. The compensation range for successful advisors who work at home will likely mirror the compensation received by advisors with similar practices, who work anywhere else, without the high overhead expenses. (To keep reading on this subject, check out Is A Career In Financial Planning In Your Future?)

Corporate Financial Careers
This last category of work-at-! home jobs encompasses several different areas, including financial analysts, certified public accountants, tax researchers, computer programmers and many others. An increasing number of these jobs are being farmed out to independent contractors. Many computer-based jobs can now be done from anywhere, therefore, employers can be reluctant to justify using expensive office space to house additional employees. In fact, existing employees are often allowed to work at home, at least part time. Many corporate jobs now only require employees to come into the office once or twice a week, for meetings or presentations, and allow them to do their remaining work at home.

The Bottom Line
As with other sectors of the economy, laptop computers and mobile phones are allowing the financial industry workforce to become increasingly mobile. More and more work is leaving the office to be done at home or out in the field, and this trend is likely to continue far into the future. Employees in the financial industry who are tired of the office routine, now have several highly compensated home-based alternatives from which to choose.

Monday, August 19, 2013

Financial plans not implemented could be a futile exercise

Mr. Kartik Mahadevan is a salaried individual holding a senior position in a telecom company. He is always hard pressed for time and has been postponing his own financial planning to a future date. On and off he has been investing for getting some tax benefits and to honor certain relationship commitments of buying certain products from friends and relatives. He then one day decided to take services of a financial planner and got his complete plan done. However after the plan presentation his planner gave him a list of things which has to be implemented to achieve hi set goals. However as soon as the plan was completed there was no implementation on his part.  It�s almost more than a year and Mr. Kartik decides to go back to his financial planner just to realize that his financial commitments have increased for the same goal as he has lost considerable time period of investing.

The story of Kartik is a story of many today. We many at times end up getting good advice from our financial planners but a plan which is not implemented falls flat. Let�s analyze the reasons of why this happens:-

1) Time poverty: - People are hard pressed for time as there are steep commitments on professional front. But what we seem to forget is that we work hard in order to satisfy your personal goals which gets lost in the process.

2) Fear of commitment: - when a plan is discussed many times it recommended starting investing in certain specific instruments in order to achieve ones goals. But on seeing the commitment needed at time there is a fear of not being able to do it currently and that leads to not starting anything. The fact is that it might not always be possible to touch the idealistic investment figure needed to achieve you goals but alteast a start in that direction needs to be done. This is so because goals might change and there could always be changes in our income and expenses so we might be able to catch up with the figure needed even at a slightly future date. But not starting anything will lead us nowhere. we need to remember that � a journey of a 1000 miles starts with a single step�

3) Waiting for something wrong to happen before starting:-  we many a times ignore some work in our life which is important and one day it becomes urgent. The decisions taken in panic most of the times end�s up in an unfavorable result. The same rule applies to financial planning. I have seen people not taking a term insurance plan till they encounter an unexpected death in their family. This aspect of human nature makes them postpone their financial planning implementation.

However genuine these reason might sound but the fact remains that goals cannot be achieved by reasons alone but there needs to be an active participation by the entire family in order to ensure that the milestones set by us turns into reality in the future.

Mukund Seshadri is a partner at MSVentures Financial Planners.

Sunday, August 18, 2013

GoM Rig Count Highest Since 2009 - Analyst Blog

In its weekly release, Houston-based oilfield services company Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI) reported a rise in the U.S. rig count (number of rigs searching for oil and gas in the country). This upside can be attributed to an increase in the tally of both oil and natural gas-directed rigs. In particular, rigs working in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (GoM) jumped to its highest level in 4 years.

The Baker Hughes' data, issued since 1944, acts as an important yardstick for energy service providers in gauging the overall business environment of the oil and gas industry.

Analysis of the Data

Weekly Summary: Rigs engaged in exploration and production in the U.S. totaled 1,757 for the week ended Jul 3, 2013 – a period curtailed by the Independence Day. This was up by 9 from the previous week's rig count and indicates the first increase in 3 weeks.

The current nationwide rig count is more than double the lowest level reached in recent years (876 in the week ended Jun 12, 2009), though it is way below the prior-year level of 1,965. It rose to a 22-year high in 2008, peaking at 2,031 in the weeks ending Aug 29 and Sep 12.

Rigs engaged in land operations ascended by 6 to 1,676, offshore drilling was up by 3 to 59 rigs, while inland waters activity remained steady at 22 units.

Natural Gas Rig Count: The natural gas rig count – which recently slumped to its lowest point since Jun 1995 – increased for the second successive week to 355 (a gain of 2 rigs from the previous week). Despite the weekly improvement, the number of gas-directed rigs is down by 56% from its 2012 peak of 811.

In fact, the current natural gas rig count remains 78% below its all-time high of 1,606 reached in late summer 2008. In the year-ago period, there were 542 active natural gas rigs.

Oil Rig Count: The oil rig count – that rocketed to a 25-year high of 1,432 in Aug last year – jumped by 5 to 1,395. It has recovered strongly from a low of 179 in Jun 2009, rising 7.8 times. However,! the current tally is below the previous year's rig count of 1,419.

Miscellaneous Rig Count: The miscellaneous rig count (primarily drilling for geothermal energy) at 7 was up by 2 from the previous week.

Rig Count by Type: The number of vertical drilling rigs fell by 7 to 434, while the horizontal/directional rig count (encompassing new drilling technology that has the ability to drill and extract gas from dense rock formations, also known as shale formations) was up by 16 to 1,323. In particular, horizontal rig units – that reached an all-time high of 1,193 in May 2012 – edged up by 1 from the last week's level to 1,068.

Gulf of Mexico (GoM): The GoM rig count was up by 3 to 57, the highest level since Feb 2009. Oil drilling increased to 43 rigs from 40 a week ago, while gas rigs remained steady at 14.

A Key Barometer of Drilling Activity: An increase or decrease in the Baker Hughes rotary rig count heavily weighs on the demand for energy services – drilling, completion, production etc. – provided by companies that include large-cap names like Halliburton Co. (HAL) and Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB). However, our preferred pick in this group is Newpark Resources Inc. (NR). The Woodlands, TX-based firm – sporting a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) – has a solid secular growth story with potential to rise from current level.

Legg Mason's June AUM Falls - Analyst Blog

Baltimore-based Legg Mason Inc. (LM) reported a drop in its assets under management (AUM) as of Jun 30, 2013 when compared with the prior quarter, thereby reflecting a reduction in foreign exchange AUM. Preliminary month-end AUM came in at $644.5 billion, down 3.0% from the prior quarter. Equity AUM rose while fixed income and liquid AUM declined.

Legg Mason's equity AUM as of June-end rose 1.6% from the prior quarter to $164.4 billion, while fixed income AUM fell 3.9% to $351.0 billion from the prior quarter figure.

The fall in fixed income AUM, partially offset by increased equity AUM resulted in a long-term AUM of $515.4 billion, reflecting a 2.2% decrease against the prior quarter. Liquid assets, which are convertible to cash, fell about 6.2% sequentially to $129.1 billion.

We believe that Legg Mason has the potential to outperform its peers in the long run, given its diversified product mix and leverage in the changing market demography. Moreover, a significant rebound in equity markets would act as a catalyst. However, in the near term, asset outflows will remain a significant headwind. However, owing to the restructuring initiatives and cost-cutting measures, we expect operating efficiencies to improve for Legg Mason and dividend payments to continue boosting investors' confidence in the stock.

Other Stocks to Consider

Legg Mason is scheduled to announce fiscal first-quarter 2014 results on Jul 25. The earnings ESP (Read: Zacks Earnings ESP: A Better Method) for the quarter is -2.50%. This, along with its Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), reduces the company's chances of a positive earnings surprise.

Though we are not optimistic about Legg Mason's earnings, there are many financial companies that are likely to beat earnings this quarter. Here are some stocks that are worth a look as our model shows them to have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Prosperity Bancshares Inc. (PB) with earnings ESP of 1.14%! and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

First Horizon National Corporation (FHN) with earnings ESP of 5.26% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) with earnings ESP of 2.27% and a Zacks Rank #3.



Saturday, August 17, 2013

Soda Companies Went Flat In Q2

Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP) and Dr. Pepper Snapple (NYSE:DPS) all sold less soda in the second quarter. Which, if any, is the stock to buy?

Soda's Not The Problem
Coke and Pepsi feel the obesity problem is all about calories--expending more and consuming less. Both have heavily promoted regular exercise along with the careful consumption of its products, many of which come in low- and no-calorie options. Putting aside the commonly held belief that its products are "liquid candy," I can see why they would feel this way.

SEE: Coca-Cola's Anti-Obesity Ad On Air

Go to any mall and you'll see cars idling by parking spaces that are full waiting for the driver of the vehicle to vacate the spot so they can park as close as possible to the mall entrance. That's just one of the many reasons why 38% of adults are obese. As for the 17% of kids that are obese, it all comes down to lack of freedom. It seems young people these days walk almost nowhere by themselves, escorted (in a car) by a parent or some other adult guardian. With the exception of those into skateboarding, you rarely see kids outside any more.

Personal responsibility seems to have gone out the window. Coke and Pepsi might make sugary drinks but given the calories are right on the cans, any effort to ban the sale or consumption of these products seems like a complete waste of time.

Declining Volumes
The disturbing reality for soda companies is that the business they had hoped to pick up with low-calorie options isn't working. In the second quarter Coke's sparkling beverage volumes in North America declined by 4%, Pepsi's by 5% and Dr. Pepper Snapple by 3%. According to Beverage Digest, the per capita soda consumption in America has been on the decline since 1998.

So what have each of the firms done to insulate themselves from the decline in soda consumption?

Pepsi's obviously done the most having acquired both Frito Lay (1965) and Quaker Oats (2000) over the years. In the second quarter its North American and Latin American food businesses generated $6.02 billion along with $1.36 billion in operating profit. This represents about 36% of its global revenue and 43% of operating profits. This doesn't include its food businesses in Europe, Asia, Middle East and Africa. It's the food business that has Nelson Peltz buying shares in both PepsiCo and Mondelez International (Nasdaq:MDLZ). Specifically, he wants Pepsi to buy Kraft Foods' (Nasdaq:KRFT) former snack business for $35 per share and then spin-off the beverage business creating $33 billion in cost synergies. Pepsi's management don't seem inclined to make the big acquisition. However, it might be open to making tuck-in deals for Diamond Foods (Nasdaq:DMND) and others.

Coke and Dr. Pepper Snapple both reported mediocre second-quarter earnings while PepsiCo's were relatively healthy by comparison. Not coincidentally, PepsiCo is the only one with a significant food business--one that is performing at maximum efficiency and profit. While Coke pushed its ownership interest in Britain's Innocent Smoothies in February to more than 90%, Seeking Alpha contributor Chris Katje recently wrote about the likelihood of the world's number one beverage company making a bid for Mondelez ahead of PepsiCo. Katje sees PepsiCo as a more likely buyer. That leaves Coke's food business with only Innocent's veggie and noodle pots, which makes it a non-entity in food. Dr. Pepper Snapple has no food investments to the best of my knowledge.

Bottom Line
In April I questioned whether PepsiCo's turnaround was real. I came to the conclusion that it needed to spit into two businesses. I recommended that unless it were to split into two, its shares, then trading at $82.77, should be bought in the high 60s. Three months later and it's gained about 3.5%, much less than the S&P 500.

However, its Q2 numbers were much better than Q1. As such, I think Pepsi becomes a safer buy at current prices than it would have been with another mediocre quarter. For me, it's definitely the stock to buy of the three. But you shouldn't rule out Mondelez--its acquisition by someone could be the catalyst needed to send the shares even higher.

Disclosure: At the time of writing, the author did not own shares of companies mentioned in this article.