Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Consumer Sentiment Improves, But Strong Headwinds Remain

Confidence improved in December as consumers are feeling slightly better about expectations for economic growth and employment. However, the gains are tenuous as personal finances are still being described as “dismal”. The Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment rose to 72.5 in December from 67.4 a month ago. While the index sits near the top of its two-year range, it still remains well below the 10-year average and below the 73.5 print we saw in September.

Consumers’ views of their current finances have improved somewhat – 49% reported a worsening financial situation this month compared to 57% a year ago – but just one-in-seven expect any inflation-adjusted income gains during the year ahead. The largest factor in the index improvement was deep discounting on a wide range of household goods by merchants trying to spur holiday sales, which more consumers cited than ever before in the 60-year history of the survey. The Current Conditions Index rose to 78.0 from 68.8 for the month, the highest level since March 2008.

Most believe the worst is behind us, as just one-in-five expect the economy to worsen in the year ahead. While consumers are much less pessimistic about the direction of the economy than a year ago, 54% still expect unfavorable economic conditions going forward. The Index of Consumer Expectations rose from 66.5 to 68.9 in December, right in the middle of its roughly 10-point range since May of this year.

Commenting on the results, University of Michigan Survey of Consumers Chief Economist Richard Curtin said “Consumers reported that the economy was slowly improving and thought that the unemployment rate would only marginally increase. While most think the worst is over; the problem is that consumers are still quite uncertain about when prospects for their own finances will improve. Even when consumers become convinced that sustained gains will be forthcoming, there will still be strong spending headwinds, including intentions to add to their savings and reserve funds and to decrease their indebtedness as well as continued restraints on the availability of credit. Overall, the data suggest consumer spending will rise by just 1.6% in 2010.”

The bottom line is that consumers will not truly believe in the recovery until the job and housing markets materially improve. Spending will remain subdued until people feel more comfortable about their personal finances and worries about unemployment subside. We will get another peek into the mind of the consumer when the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which represents a larger survey sample, is released next Tuesday.

Disclosure: No Positions

UBS Veteran Hoekstra to Lead ETF Advisory Firm

Ridgewood, N.J.-based Emerging Global Advisors said Monday that Marten S. Hoekstra has joined the firm as its chief executive officer.

Hoekstra previously served as CEO of UBS Wealth Management Americas and on the UBS' Group Executive Board. The UBS Americas unit is now led by Merrill Lynch-veteran Robert McCann.

According to Emerging Global Advisors, Hoekstra is assuming the CEO position from founder Robert Holderith, who will continue as president.

“We aim to be the leading brand for emerging market investing, and Marten has the global vision and experience to ensure we achieve our goals and objectives,” said Hoderith in a press release. “We are significantly advantaged having him lead our team.”

Prior to joining Emerging Global Advisors, Hoekstra spent 26 years at UBS and its predecessor firm, PaineWebber.  He also served as a director of the Securities Industry Association.

Hoekstra led the wealth-management group in the United States and Latin America from July 2005 to October 2009, when McCann was tapped as its new head.

“Joining Emerging Global Advisors provides a rare and incredibly exciting opportunity to build a powerful brand in what will likely be the fastest-growing segment in asset management during the next few years,” explained Hoekstra in a statement.

Emerging Global Advisors is advisor to the EGShares family of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which manage nine emerging-market ETF products, such as the EGShares Brazil Infrastructure ETF (BRXX) – now with an average market capitalization of about $17 billion, according to the company.

The Journal’s Tax Story Comes Up Short

The Wall Street Journal recently missed a big point about the tax burdens facing millions of small businesses.

Its article �More Firms Enjoy Tax-Free Status� argues that increasing numbers of businesses are organized so �they don’t pay a penny in federal corporate income tax.� That�s true, but as the American Family Business Institute notes, those business owners pay taxes on their business through their personal income taxes.

�Unfortunately, an implication of characterizations like this is that it implicitly calls for hiking individual income taxes, which ensnares more and more family businesses,� AFBI spokesman Charles Chamberlayne said in a statement to InvestorPlace. �For business owners filing via personal income taxes, their family business likely accounts for the majority of what is considered personal income and is subject to a higher marginal tax rate.�

The three main types of flow-through businesses are sole proprietorships, partnerships and S corporations. Business groups such as the AFBI are fighting President Barack Obama�s plan to allow the Bush-era tax cuts to expire and allow for the top marginal rates to revert to their pre-2001 levels of 39% and 39.6%, respectively. This would affect many small-business owners, many of whom don’t make big money.

According to data from Tax Policy Center, the average positive business income for all taxpayers is $39,950. Their profits are likely far more modest since much of their wealth is tied up in their companies.

�� For most taxpayers, positive business income is a relatively small share of their overall income,� Howard Gleckman of the Tax Policy Center wrote in an email. �Only at the top, where it is greater than half of all income for one-third of households, is it a big deal. For many others, it probably represents income from a part-time or sideline business (think money you might make freelancing or a plumber who works for a rental agency during the day but takes on extra jobs at night).�

The Journal, which stands by its story, correctly notes that businesses, sensing the tax advantages, are increasingly organizing themselves under structures that enable them to avoid paying corporate income tax.

�By some estimates, more than 60% of U.S. businesses with profits of $1 million are structured as pass-throughs, the highest rate among developed countries,� the newspaper says. �Their popularity is one big reason why federal corporate tax collections amounted to just 1.3% of GDP in 2010, well below their mark of 2.7% in 2006 and far beneath their peak of 6.1% in 1952.�

The implications for the budget deficit — which stands at more than $1 trillion — are staggering. But a solution also is elusive. Raising taxes on the rich won�t necessarily depress job growth since wealthy individuals are adept at minimizing the reach of Uncle Sam. There�s no guarantee they would create jobs with their tax savings, either.

Business groups and the Republican presidential candidates have argued that the solution to this problem is to roll back the 35% statutory tax rate for corporations. Unfortunately, the answer isn�t so simple. Most corporations don�t pay this rate because they take advantage of tax benefits, known to the public as loopholes.

Moreover, low rates do not equate to prosperity, such as the case in Ireland. Ireland�s corporate tax rate is 12.5%, among the lowest in the world. The impact of the rate on the Irish economy was huge, earning it the nickname the �Celtic Tiger� as scads of Fortune 500 companies including Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), IBM (NYSE:IBM) and Allergan (NYSE:AGN) set up operations on the Emerald Isle.

But the country�s fortunes have changed in the past few years. In 2010, Ireland needed a $113 billion bailout in 2010. Recently, Ireland had the second-worst-performing eurozone economy behind Greece in the third quarter, and it slashed its GDP forecast twice in December. Now there is speculation that the country will need a second bailout.

People have an almost primal instinct for figuring out how to pay the least amount of money to the government. That explains why so many businesses are forming flow-through businesses and why — for now — the IRS can do little about it.

As of this writing, Jonathan Berr did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned stocks.

ConAgra Foods: Earnings Preview

ConAgra Foods Inc. (CAG), North America's leading packaged food company, is slated to release its second quarter of fiscal 2011 results on December 21. Based on the first quarter results, ConAgra narrowed its fiscal 2011 earnings per share (EPS) growth expectation from the range of 8%-10% over the fiscal 2010 EPS of $1.74 to just 5%-7%.

First Quarter Summary
ConAgra reported results for the first quarter of fiscal 2011 slightly below expectations on account of increases in costs and expenses as well as a high domestic inflation rate. EPS (excluding a one-time expense) was 34 cents, down from 38 cents in the year-ago quarter, and net income was $151.6 million, down 10.5% from $169.3 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2010. Reported EPS was far below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 39 cents.

Net revenue slipped 2.4% to $2,817.6 million from $2,886.3 million in the corresponding quarter of fiscal 2010 and also below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,975 million. The decrease in total revenues was due to a 3.2% decrease in revenues from the Commercial Foods segment and a 1.9% decrease in the Consumer Food segment.

For details please click on the link: ConAgra Underperforms

Agreement of Analysis
The slower market recovery and increase in costs in the first quarter have pushed the analysts to reduce their estimates. Commodities form the primary cost for ConAgra as it uses various raw materials such as wheat, corn, oats, soybeans, beef, pork and poultry. Commodities are subject to price volatility caused by market fluctuations, supply and demand, currency fluctuations and changes in governmental agricultural programs. Thus, commodity price increases will result in increases in raw material costs and operating costs.

The decrease in the EPS growth expectations in fiscal 2011 was also a reason for the lower estimate. Hence, for the second quarter of fiscal 2011, 8 out of 9 analysts have lowered their estimates and for fiscal 2011, all the 10 analysts following the stock have moved their estimates with none moving in the opposite direction. For fiscal 2012, 6 out of 10 analysts have reduced their estimates, while none of them raising it. Thus, the overall trend was negative.

Magnitude
For the second quarter of fiscal 2011, estimates moved down by 5 cents to 45 cents per share and fiscal 2011 estimate declined to $1.76 from $1.84. For fiscal 2012, estimate reduced by only 3 cents to $1.95 per share.

With respect to earnings surprises, AAR Corp. had a mixed track record in the preceding four quarters. Two out of the last four quarters recorded a negative while the other recorded positive surprises. The average earnings surprise was a negative of 1.56% over the last four quarters, which signifies that the company has fallen short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate by that measure.

Our Recommendation
Despite poor first quarter results, we reiterate our Neutral recommendation on the stock based on the company's various strategic moves, which significantly enhances its portfolio. In the first quarter, ConAgra acquired American Pie for approximately $130 million and divested Gilroy Foods & Flavors dehydrated vegetable operations to Olam International for $250 million. The company's expectation to save $275 million in fiscal 2011 through cost-reduction initiatives also inspires our optimism.

However, the highly-competitive food industry and extremely volatile commodity prices are matters of prime concern. Thus, the stock currently retains its short-term "Sell" rating, equivalent to a Zacks #4 Rank.

Why You Should Always Reinvest Dividends (and 6 Income Stocks to Start With)

I consider myself a fairly frugal person. I like cutting recurring expenses, which is why I drive a ten year old car and only have a discounted cell phone with the lowest plan possible. Saving money and investing in quality dividend stocks is just one of the strategies I utilize to increase my dividend income. Cutting expenses however can only go so far however. That�s why generating extra income is so important to me. Besides the dividend income from my portfolio, I often look for brokerage deals in order to find brokerage bonuses or free trades. I also like teaching young people how to save and invest for their future.

Back in 2008 Sharebuilder had a promotion, where investors who put $50 in their account and executed one trade could earn a $50 cash bonus. I shared this deal with a young dividend investor who invested $40 in a real estate investment trust called Realty Income Corp. (NYSE: O), which pays monthly distributions to its shareholders. The company was well known for having raised distributions every quarter since going public in 1994. He paid a $4 commission on the trade and as a result generated a $0.20/month income stream from this small investment. He subsequently received the $50 cash bonus in a few weeks, which meant that he was essentially playing with the house�s money.

The investor did sign up for the dividend reinvestment program, which meant that each month these $0.20 deposits were automatically reinvested into additional shares. The company has another $50 promotion right now as well.

I had forgotten about this account, until I spoke with this investor when I was preparing their taxes for 2010. I noted that their monthly distributions had increased to $0.25. This was a cool 25% increase in dividend income for just 3 years, during one of the worst recessions since the Great Depression. With the automatic dividend reinvestment he was able to purchase shares in Realty Income during the worst market conditions, as well as throughout the market�s steady climb over the past 2 years.

Albert Einstein had once said that compounding of interest was one of the biggest wonders in the world. With dividend reinvestment, investors could take advantage of this compounding for wealth accumulation. In addition to that, by selecting companies whose stocks regularly raise dividends, investors could essentially turbocharge their returns in the long run.

For my 40+ positions I typically collect the dividend income until it reaches a certain threshold, and then I reinvest it selectively in the most attractive dividend stocks at the time of purchase.

Companies for long term dividend investment, which fit my entry criteria right now include:

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) operates retail stores in various formats worldwide. This dividend aristocrat has raised distributions for 37 years in a row and has a ten year dividend growth rate of 17.80% per year. Yield: 2.80% Check my analysis of the stock.

The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) manufactures, distributes, and markets nonalcoholic beverage concentrates and syrups worldwide. This dividend aristocrat has raised distributions for 49 years in a row and has a ten year dividend growth rate of 10% per year. Yield: 2.80% Check my analysis of the stock.

Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (NYSE: APD) provides atmospheric gases, process and specialty gases, performance materials, equipment, and services worldwide. The company has raised distributions for 29 years in a row and has a ten year dividend growth rate of 10% per year. Yield: 2.50% Check my analysis of the stock.

The Chubb Corporation (NYSE: CB) , through its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty insurance to businesses and individuals. The company has raised distributions for 46 years in a row and has a ten year dividend growth rate of 8.30% per year. Yield: Check my analysis of the stock.

McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) , together with its subsidiaries, operates as a worldwide foodservice retailer. The company has raised distributions for 34 years in a row and has a ten year dividend growth rate of 26.50% per year. Yield: 3.20% Check my analysis of the stock.

The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) provides consumer packaged goods in the United States and internationally. The company operates in three global business units (GBUs): Beauty and Grooming, Health and Well-Being, and Household Care. The company has raised distributions for 54 years in a row and has a ten year dividend growth rate of % per year. Yield: 3.10% Check my analysis of the stock.

The moral of the story is to save a lot, buy quality dividend growth stocks at the right times and reinvest dividends when you can.

Dividend opportunities abound abroad. Get 3 Foreign Dividend Stocks to Buy.

Full disclosure: Long all stocks mentioned above. For more information, visit DividendGrowthInvestor.com.

Monday, July 30, 2012

AUD-USD: Set to Recapture Key Resistance Levels

With a buildup on its rally started from the 1.0141 level in force, AUD-USD now looks to return above its key resistance levels. In such a case, its resistance zone at the 1.0378/84 levels will come in as its immediate upside target with a clearance of that region setting the stage for further strength toward the 1.0444 level, its No. 3'2011 high. A loss of there will turn focus to the 1.0569 level, its Oct. 31 high. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further upside gains. On the downside, the risk to this analysis will be a return to the 1.0141 level, its Jan. 9, 2012 low where we may see a breather. However, if this level is breached, it will pave the way for a run at the 1.0042 level, its Dec. 29, 2011 low. Further down, support lies at the 0.9861 level and the 0.9796 level, its Nov. 11, 2011 low. All in all, the pair faces the risk of returning above the 1.0378/84 levels and beyond.

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Jobless Claims Fall to 364,000

The number of Americans filing for first time unemployment benefits fell according to a Labor Department report.

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Initial jobless claims dropped 4,000 to 364,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis in the week ended Dec. 17 from a revised 368,000 in the previous week.

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Economists expected to see claims rise to 375,000 from an originally reported 366,000, according to Thomson Reuters. The four-week moving average declined by 8,000 to 380,250 from the previous week's revised average of 388,250.According the David Semmens, economist with Standard Chartered Bank, initial claims have now dropped to the lowest level since April 2008. "This continues to reinforce our opinion that the labor market is on the mend, but there is still a significant pick up in hiring needed to make any dent in the unemployment rate," he wrote in a note. "We continue to expect labor demand to stay around the level to keep unemployment relatively constant, [around 150,000 new jobs per month during 2012,] but there is still plenty of scope for upgrading those working part-time closer to full time."-- Written by Ross Tucker in New York.>To follow the writer on Twitter, go to http://twitter.com/rosstucker.>To submit a news tip, send an email to: tips@thestreet.com.

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Facts and Stats That Blew My Mind

"The devil is in the details," they say. But I think that famous expression could just as easily be, "The devil is in the numbers." Numbers matter for investors, so it's incredibly important to understand what they mean.

I spend my days reading and analyzing stocks, so I stumble across fascinating numbers all the time. As part of my investing process, I always try to seek out the larger implications behind these figures. Many times they might indicate potential growth, or reveal the nuances of a revenue stream. Obviously, the numbers aren't everything -- qualitative factors are equally important when making an investing decision. I strongly believe, however, that meaningful figures are a key part of a successful investing process, so I'll be sharing with you some of the stats and facts I've stumbled across that made me do a double take.

Water, malt, hops, yeast... and rice?
If you had to guess which company bought 10% of the total domestic rice supply each year, what would you say? Maybe someone in the food services industry like Chinese food purveyor P.F. Chang's or perhaps private-label manufacturer Ralcorp? While they'd be good guesses, they lose out to a company with a surprising rice appetite: Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE: BUD  ) .

That's right -- the world's largest brewer is also the country's largest rice purchaser, gobbling up one out of every 10 grains of rice grown in the U.S. annually. The crop is a key ingredient in Anheuser's signature Budweiser brand, one of the few beers brewed this way. While the merits of rice-based beer are debated, the impact on Anheuser-Busch is more clear. With rice comprising 30% of the ingredients, the brand has a different commodity structure than competitors like Boston Beer (NYSE: SAM  ) .

This can help or hinder Anheuser-Busch. For instance, if rice prices rise faster than competitor's inputs, Budweiser will have to raise its prices comparatively more and risk losing some of its 51% domestic market share; vice versa if rice remains comparatively cheap. Budweiser is still just one of AB's brands, but it is its biggest, so investors should keep an eye on rice prices if they're considering an investment here.

King Kong has nothing on Wal-Mart
When it comes to massive companies, retail juggernaut Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT  ) sets the bar. This company is so big that its decision to add choice beef to its stores pushed the wholesale price of the product to an eight-year high after it purchased so much.

This company is full of mind-boggling stats like that, but here are a few of my favorites:

  • Wal-Mart's computer system is the world's largest, surpassing even the Pentagon's.
  • Wal-Mart owns the world's largest fleet of trucks.
  • The company is the second-largest employer in the United States, behind only the government.

So what good is that computer system? Well, just one task it performs is monitoring weather patterns. If it detects a hurricane or extreme weather approaching, it'll automatically order more strawberry Pop-Tarts from Kellogg -- a disaster zone favorite-- and get them on trucks in time to hit stores in soon-to-be devastated areas. That's some serious processing power.

The point here is that while many regard Wal-Mart as a boring investment, its economic moat is so wide that you can barely see across it. It has the scope, resources, and supply chain to outmaneuver and out-operate virtually any competitor. I would not bet against it.

Ke$ha > The Beatles?
It's true. Ke$ha's debut single "Tik Tok" has sold more copies than any Beatles single. Once I picked my jaw up off the floor and got over the horrible cultural implications here, I realized the powerful forces and investing opportunities fueling this performance.

While few would argue Ke$ha is the superior artist, none can debate the superiority of modern music distribution compared to when The Beatles were recording. The digital revolution has taken music from a physical record, cassette, or CD, and made it available as digital content. Back in 2008, Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL  ) surpassed Wal-Mart as the No. 1 music retailer in the U.S. In 2009, Apple became the largest music retailer worldwide. Now it accounts for 70% of all music sales.

Apple's iTunes does away with the traditional understanding of supply chains, inventory, and manufacturing. It is able to put more content in the hands of more people faster than ever before. iTunes is slated to bring in $13 billion in revenue in 2013, which will only add to Apple's mountain of cash.

While it is depressing that "Tik Tok" sold more than any Beatles single, Ke$ha had the upper hand in terms of distribution, not to mention a larger and more connected population to sell to. Through iTunes, Ke$ha was able to sell over 600,000 copies of one song in just seven days. While the real money driver of Apple has become its iPhone, the fact that iTunes is still growing at 29% a year makes it another valuable revenue stream. The program also acts as a complement to the company's other devices, increasing its appeal. With its massive cash balance, dominant media position, and continued growth, Apple is still poised to reward shareholders for years to come.

Here today, bigger tomorrow
These three companies are all the biggest players in their respective spaces, so it may be tough to get excited about them. While it's true that many of the biggest companies quickly become household names and have most expectations reflected in their stock price, we are at the very beginning of what Fool technology analyst Eric Bleeker has dubbed "the next trillion-dollar revolution." As we move further down the road of mobile device penetration, there is one unexpected company poised to become the juggernaut of tomorrow. The Motley Fool has profiled this company in a special FREE report. You can click here to access it now -- it won't cost a dime.

Charting Banking: Interest Spread

Let’s start with the most important story in banking today, and it is not commercial real estate. It is the significant improvement of the interest spread of new loans versus deposit costs.

This spread reflects both the marginal profitability of generating new loans and resetting those deposits to new lower interest rates. In time, this spread is driving the significant improvement in net interest margins (NIM) of most banks as soon as their non performing assets (NPAs), that are not accruing interest, start to stabilize. Some call it the big bailout, but historically this has been the way that lower interest rates have stimulated the economy. As soon as banks strengthen their balance sheets and competition for loans restart, interest rates on new loans should also fall.

The following (click to enlarge) is a chart from the recent Zions Bancorporation (ZION) investors day. This bank still is shaky and has not been as aggressive as others in recognizing NPAs but the information disclosed was excellent. And this graph tells the tale.

Disclosure: No Position

ReachLocal Q4 EPS Beats, Q1 Rev View Tops Consensus

Shares of local advertising pioneer ReachLocal (RLOC) are up $1.26, or 15%, at $9.60 in late trading after the company met Q4 revenue estimates, reported a stronger-than-expected profit, and projected this quarter’s revenue ahead of expectations.

Revenue in the three months ended in December rose 24%, year over year, to $99.8 million, yielding EPS of 12 cents a share, excluding some costs, compared to a net loss of 2 cents a year earlier. Analysts had been modeling $99.9 million and a projected loss of 5 cents per share.

Note that the 5 cents is a GAAP estimate. There is a non-GAAP estimate available from FactSet that was for 4 cents per share, which some investors may have been using as the basis for comparison. On that basis, the company still beat, albeit by a smaller margin.

For the current quarter, the company projects revenue in a range of $102 million to $104 million, ahead of the average $102 million estimate.

For the year, the company projects revenue in a range of $435 million to $450 millon, below the average $452 million estimate.

CEO Zorik Gordon remarked that the company was poised to benefit from more small and medium businesses looking to advertise online. He said 2012 would be a year of increased investment. The company projects adjusted Ebitda this year of $17 million to $21 million, which would be up from the $15.9 million recorded last year. CFO Ross Landsbaum said that “Our 2011 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA performance demonstrates the continued scaling of our business.”

Update: In the late session, the shares are actually back to an unchanged level at $8.34. It appears the surge of 15% was an errant trade or two around quarter of 4 pm, Eastern.

Update 2: The shares continued to move around quite a bit in late trading, and the latest quote has the stock back up again by $1, or 12%, at $9.34.

Update 3: CEO Gordon was kind enough to talk with me following the company’s conference call. Gordon said that the focus of investment this year will be on hiring sales staff, especially in overseas market where the company saw a 72% rise in revenue and where there’s less competition so far for local advertising dollars. Putting more people in place in markets such as the U.K., Australia, and elsewhere overseas can have a meaningful impact on productivity, he said.

Another big focus this year will be R&D on products. Among them will be mobile versions of the user interface for the company’s service. That would allow, say, a local HVAC vendor to control their use of ReachLocal’s advertising platform from a smartphone or tablet computer. The time frame for that big push into mobile is early this year, he said.

3 Memory-Chip Stocks Worth Remembering

Demand for consumer technology such as tablets and smartphones has focused the spotlight on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). But that company isn’t the only winner.�

After recession bottomed out their product prices in 2009, flash-memory chipmakers are also enjoying a resurgence in demand and profits as consumer technology demand grows. According to Gartner, worldwide chip sales increased by nearly one-third to $299.4 billion last year.

The party is set to continue this year. According to IHS iSuppli, NAND flash memory consumption (the memory chip used in smartphones and tablets) is expected to nearly quadruple this year. Similarly, smart phones (again, major consumers of memory chips) are expected to top $1 billion in sales this year.

Given their explosive growth, memory chip makers are good investment bets. Here are some chip makers that have a great opportunity to ride the crest of this boom:���

1. Micron Tech (NASDAQ:MU): A major player in the flash memory industry, the company went through a rough patch recently when prices for its two main revenue sources – DRAM and NAND Flash memory chips — fell last year. This year has been a different story.�

Micron has ramped up production by opening up a $3 billion facility in Singapore with Intel (NASDAQ:INTC). It’ recent acquisition of Numonyx — a major player in the NOR flash memory space – should further consolidate its position in the flash memory industry. What’s more, the company has had relatively healthy operating margins of 8% despite the takeover.

2. Spansion (NASDAQ:CODE): Once the world’s largest NOR flash supplier, Spansion saw some bad times recently when it had to file for bankruptcy in 2009. But the company has rebounded smartly since then: after listing in May last year, the company reached a total market cap of $1.13 billion in less than a year. It has a trailing P/E ratio of 6.65, which is pretty good in an industry which has an average P/E ratio of 18.80. A slew of new products, increased margins and lower operating costs should propel Spansion’s comeback story to further heights.

3. Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK): A member of the S&P 500, Sandisk is a veteran and, possibly, one of the strongest players in this sector. After peaking at $67.36 in March 2006, the company’s stock price spent most of the recession languishing at single-digit figures. However, consumer demand for mobile handheld devices has helped stock prices zoom back to double digits in recent years. Revenue has increased by 48% to $4.83 billion. Add first-mover advantage, sophisticated technology that enables the firm to pack more transistors into a single chip (and cut manufacturing cost), and expected future demand for solid state devices to the mix and you have a winner.

Sunday, July 29, 2012

Who Says Gold Is in a Bubble?

Many “experts” remain skeptical about the performance of gold bullion and often contend gold is in a bubble. The chart below, courtesy of Casey’s Daily Dispatch, casts some light on whether the barbarous relic is displaying bubble characteristics. You be the judge …

Click to enlarge:

Source: Casey’s Daily Dispatch, June 23, 2010.

Meanwhile, from across the pond, David Fuller (Fullermoney) commented as follows:

… my guess is that we may be no more than approximately halfway through gold bullion’s secular bull market. I remain somewhat cautious about gold’s short-term outlook but I am a long-term bull.

Stick around – there is no fever like gold fever!

Is The EUR Move Exaggerated?

By Dean Popplewell

The market needs an extended break to digest what was dumped on her late Friday and Martin Luther King Day in the US gives us that opportunity. The decision by S&P to downgrade the sovereign ratings of nine euro-zone nations continues to weight on risk sentiment across all asset classes. Thus far, the market believes that the one notch downgrade in France’s rating to AA+ should not snowball into widespread selling of French product. That theory has been tested this morning with the French Treasury coming to market with +EUR8.7b of 84-day-357-day T-bills. The issues drew strong investor demand in Frances first bill auction of 2012 with short-term yields rising only slightly from record lows reached in its last auction of 2011.

The biggest fallout from the rating agency’s actions will be the potential effect it could have on the EFSF. If the EFSF rating is downgraded, analysts estimate that the lending capacity would be reduced to +EUR150b. The German MoF is “in no doubt that the EFSF can fulfill tasks with the current volume.” The S&P’s chop has left Portugal with a rating of BB negative outlook, and has taken the country from a pool of investment grade assets to speculative grade, joining Greece and Cyprus. It seems logical to assume that if Greece cannot pull-off another PSI and move closer to default, then it will only be matter of time before Portugal is on ‘her shoulder.’ Policy makers unwilling to commit further funds are going to have a difficult time convincing investors that PSI for Greece will be the last.

Big picture, unless Draghi and company change its tune on QE or Merkel her views on Eurobonds then it will not be long before the market again is talking about another bailout for Portugal and an earlier focus on that country’s PSI situation.

FX moves seem to belie sovereign yields at the moment. Despite rates punching above their weight, there is a perception that the EUR has weakened too much following the rating announcements last week. The downgrades do not have much of a surprise element in it and the EUR has still managed to drop 1.5-big figures. In times past, and with FX anticipating a downgrade, the single currency typically weakened -0.3%. Is this currency move exaggerated? Perhaps it is the new norm to be seen across all asset classes?

Again, this morning selling EUR’s on rallies is preferred, giving the market a bearish consistency in all asset classes. With the US on holiday and in some corners a perception of an oversold market should lead to some further consolidation in the currency markets short term.

Cardinal Health Still Seeking To Acquire China Drug Distributors

Cardinal Health (NYSE: CAH), the US drug distribution company, is still hunting for M&A opportunities in China’s drug distribution sector. Late last year, Cardinal Health made its first purchase in China, paying a sizeable $470 million to acquire the China drug distribution business of Zuellig Pharma (see story). In the future, Cardinal said it wants to combine organic growth with acquisitions to expand its presence in China.

This week, Cardinal opened a major new logistics center in Shanghai, the biggest in China for the company. The center, which comprises 40,000 square-meters, will serve the Shanghai area.

"We will continue to look for opportunities to expand our footprint here in China," said George Barrett, CEO of Cardinal in an interview with China Daily (see story). "I cannot be really specific on particular targets but I will be very disappointed if, looking back a year from now, we have not already made some acquisitions here," he continued.

In China, Zuellig, known locally as Yong Yu, posted revenues in excess of $1 billion, with sales to 49,000 hospitals and clinics. Before the Zuellig acquisition, Cardinal sourced life science products in the PRC, but was not involved in distribution.

Disclosure: none.

Saturday, July 28, 2012

Overseas Property Investment: Emerging Turkey vs Established Favorites

Turkey is making a name for itself in the overseas property world, but the same strengths that are making it so popular are also acting as a drawback against other markets. Spain and Greece have thousands of heavily discounted properties on sales, while Turkey has none or certainly very few because its property market is so strong and vibrant.

But of course, Turkey property is comparatively much cheaper than its established counterparts anyway, especially property in Altinkum for example, which is among the cheapest in the world.. But investment isn't just about buying cheap, it is about buying a property with investment potential at a value where gains can be maximised, so let’s weigh up the options and see what we come up with.

Comparing Property Investments
Buy to Let

For those that don't know, buy to let is buying a property to let out on a residential basis; people live in your property and pay you rent. In this type of investment Turkey is capable of beating the established markets because its emergence as a regional power is generating exceptional demand for rental accommodation.

The Turkish economy was the fastest growing in Europe in 2011 and continues to grow well this year. The rapid growth in the economy is reducing unemployment and growing the middle class in the country. At the same time Turkey has one of the fastest growing populations in the world. As the population grows in affluence and numbers it continues to generate exceptional demand for quality rented accommodation, which is still in short supply in Turkey.

Istanbul is the focal point of the buy to let boom as it has the fastest growing population in Turkey and one of the strongest job markets. Developers in Istanbul regularly report demand outstripping supply far faster than they can build to catch up with. As a result rental yields in Istanbul are over 6%, and other cities like Izmir and Antalya are not far behind.

Sure, there are obviously buy to let opportunities in the likes of Spain and Greece, but Turkey offers by far the strongest future.

Buy to Sell

In this investment our profit will come from capital appreciation during the term we hold the property. A buy to let investment will also usually be sold at the end of a planned period of time, and hopefully for a profit, but under the buy to sell strategy the term of holding will be much shorter.

Because of the dozens of heavily discounted properties, many buy to sell investors may bet on the established markets. It all comes down to faith in the recovery. Prices in the likes of Spain and the US will scarcely ever be lower in real terms, if you belief that the recovery will come on strong some time in the next 5-10 years then buy now, as that recovery will bring exceptional capital gains on your investment. But even then you have to sell it on, so choosing a place where demand is expected to strengthen during the recovery and/or to be strong at the time of your planned exit is essential.

This is where Turkey makes a comeback, because as explained above demand for property is continually rising – yes to rent, but the mortgage market is growing at about 20-25 per cent per year, according to the central bank, so buying is growing as well. According to the Reidin/GYODER index Turkish property prices are growing at around 10% per year, so the gains may not be as spectacular as the potential gains from bargain properties in the US or Spain, but the exit strategy is perhaps more reliable and/or easier to plan.

In truth there is room for appreciation in all locations, research will tell you where you can make the most profit based on your investment requirements.

Holiday Home Investments

When it comes to holiday home investment, potential returns is not always the only determinant factor. In fact, it depends on what the investors wants from their investment; are they buying a holiday home first and an investment second or vice versa.

In the first case the location chosen by the buyer will be determined by where they love to holiday, with rental potential only a secondary consideration, whereas in the second rental potential will determine the choice of location.

For obvious reasons we will cover the dedicated investor for whom self-use is a secondary bonus. Spain is a top runner on this front, as it is still the biggest holiday destination in Europe, and third in the world. Having said that, the opportunities for private investors to capitalise on Spanish rental demand are fairly limited, while in Turkey the tourism market is young and growing, and private rental accommodation is growing as a part of it. This means that demand for private rented accommodation in Turkey’s tourism hotspots is growing rapidly, which is good news for investors. Again it is about researching supply and demand, because only you can choose the right investment for you.

5 Hot Stocks You Should Sell Now

This article originally appeared on TradersReserve.

The market continues to make new highs, and plenty of stocks are too — whether they should be or not. Many companies have posted strong earnings and beat Wall Street expectations, and have justifiably seen their share prices surge. Others, however, have run up a little too far in front of their earnings potential, and represent�stocks to sell.

How to Tell a Stock is Overvalued

One way to measure whether a stock is overvalued is to look at the price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio, or PEG ratio. A stock that is considered fairly valued will have a PEG ratio of 1, which simply means the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio equals the estimated earnings growth. Traditionally, a PEG ratio over 1 means the stock is overbought.

The names on this list of stocks to sell are overvalued based on their high PEG ratios. In addition, they have all made big moves up in the past year, and a pullback is likely. So if you own any of them, you should think about taking your profits off the table.

Stock to Sell #1 – Amazon.com

Online retailer Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) has posted a most-impressive gain of over 22% in just the past three months, and over the past 12 months, the stock is up more than 61%. The stock has a PEG ratio of 3.04, so it can be said to be overvalued here. But the real headwinds for Amazon could come from Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Sony (NYSE: SNE). Both companies have e-readers with greater functionality than Amazon’s Kindle, and if these devices start to take market share from the Kindle, it could be the catalyst investors need to turn the page on AMZN.

Stock to Sell #2 – Green Mountain Coffee Roasters

This coffee stock has been a darling of investors for the past year. Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (NASDAQ: GMCR) shares spiked over 400% in the past two years, giving shareholders a caffeine high all the way to the bank. But recently, many analysts cut their rating on Green Mountain shares to “underperform” from “neutral,” citing the coffee seller’s high valuation. With a PEG ratio of 2.67, now may be the time for investors to quit drinking Green Mountain shares.

Stock to Sell #3 – Harley-Davidson

Iconic American motorcycle brand Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) has twisted the throttle on its stock, climbing nearly 34% during the past three months. Over the past year, the company’s stock has rumbled more than 75% higher. Harley-Davidson just posted earnings that actually beat the consensus forecast; however, it did so on a loss of $42.1 million, and a decline in retail sales of motorcycles. With slowing sales, the company had to rely on cost cutting to make its quarter. However, this cost-cutting can’t last forever, and with a PEG ratio of 2.77, this is one overvalued hog whose ride has likely come to an end.

Stock to Sell #4 – Salesforce.com

Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM) is a customer relations management software maker that helps businesses increase their efficiency. The company’s earnings have been solid over the past several years, and investors have rewarded the stock with a 117% gain in the past 12 months. And while we think Salesforce.com will continue earning money, at a PEG ratio of 9.61, it definitely falls into the overvalued column. If you have profits in this stock, now just might be the time to increase your portfolio’s efficiency by selling your CRM shares.

Stock to Sell #5 – Yahoo

Online search engine firm Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO) just reported earnings that beat consensus forecasts. Revenue in the first quarter totaled $1.53 billion, certainly a big number, but that represented an decrease of 11.9% over prior year. The lower-than-expected top-line number prompted traders to sell the stock, and in this case, following the smart money might be the prudent thing to do. Yahoo has a PEG ratio of 1.98, and its shares have gained nearly 30% in the past six months. That means that if you’re riding this overvalued roller coaster, it could be a good time to get off.

Get the FREE report from TradersReserve, “10 Top Stocks to Buy Now,” by clicking here.

Two Attractive Canadian Stocks

By J. Royden Ward

There are many interesting corporations located in Canada. Most major Canadian corporations are located in large cities within a short distance of the U.S. border. The fastest growing Canadian companies with five-year revenue and earnings growth of 15% or higher are:

Agrium (AGU)
Barrick Gold (ABX)
Baytex Energy (BTE)
Iamgold (IAG)
Open Text (OTEX)
Quicksilver Resources (KWK)
Research in Motion (RIMM)
Rogers Communications (RCI)
Sierra Wireless (SWIR)
SXC Health Solutions (SXCI)

There are many more companies worth noting: companies with slower but dependable growth such as Canadian Pacific Railway (CP), as well as newer companies with exciting growth prospects such as Lululemon Athletica (LULU).

I am a value investor. I follow the teachings of Benjamin Graham, which are now utilized by many leading investors, including Warren Buffett. I look for quality companies at bargain prices. It doesn�t matter in what industry the company operates and where the company is headquartered. Lately, my attention has been drawn to a larger number of Canadian companies that are clearly undervalued and offer excellent appreciation potential during the next one to three years.

Two of the most attractive Canadian companies are Canadian Pacific Railway and Lululemon Athletica.

Canadian Pacific Railway, founded in 1880 and based in Calgary, Alberta, operates over 15,000 miles of rail serving the Midwest and Northeast U.S., and more importantly, the major business centers of Canada. The railway offers coast-to-coast freight transportation for goods produced in Canada and the northern U.S. Canadian Pacific Railway�s low-cost freight transport is taking market share from trucking, which is burdened with rising fuel prices.

Intermodal container shipping offers an efficient means to transport goods over long distances. Goods typically arrive in the port of Vancouver on the west coast in containers and are hauled to their destinations efficiently by rail. Likewise, freight arrives in the port of Montreal near the east coast from Europe and is hauled to other areas in Canada and the U.S. Freight is frequently transferred to other railroads in Canada and the U.S. to reach destinations not served by Canadian Pacific Railway.

Revenues increased 3% during the past 12-month period ending 3/31/10. Earnings per share (EPS) fell 5% during the same period, but will likely increase 27% during the next 12 months. Revenues should rise 8% during the next 12 months led by intermodal container transportation.

Canadian Pacific Railway generates excellent cash flow and pays an attractive dividend yielding 1.6%. CP shares are undervalued at 16.4 times 12-month forward EPS of 3.64. In comparison, Warren Buffett paid 20 times EPS for Burlington Northern. I recommend buying CP at 60.00 or below.

Lululemon Athletica, founded in 1998 in Vancouver, British Columbia, makes athletic clothing for yoga, dancing, running and other active endeavors. The company sells women�s pants, shorts, tops and jackets in 106 company-owned and 13 franchised stores in Canada, the U.S., Australia and Hong Kong.

The company has distinguished itself from competitors by utilizing superior fabrics and unique clothing designs. The company works with athletes in local communities to obtain valuable product feedback.

Lululemon�s sales increased 40% and EPS soared 55% during the last 12-month period. For the most recent quarter, same store sales increased an amazing 29% and earnings per share doubled. We expect sales to increase 23% during the next 12 months accompanied by a 33% jump in earnings per share.

Share price, as measured by Lululemon�s price to earnings ratio, is expensive at 33.8 times our 12-month forward earnings estimate, but the company�s exciting growth potential provides an advantageous investment opportunity. Lululemon has a strong balance sheet with no long-term debt and lots of cash. I recommend buying LULU now.

Akeena Q2 Revs Beat; Changing Name To Westinghouse Solar

Akeena Solar (AKNS) this morning reports Q2 revenue of $9.9 million, up 54% from Q1, and above the Street consensus at $8.9 million. The solar installation company� posted an adjusted loss for the quarter of $3.4 million, or 9 cents a share; the Street had expected a loss of 8 cents.

Meanwhile, the company also said it is changing its name to Westinghouse Solar, and will take the new symbol WEST, effective tomorrow.

“Solar is going mainstream, and well-known brand names are key to widespread consumer adoption,” CEO Barry Cinnamon said in a statement. “In May, we announced a partnership with Westinghouse, which unites their trusted brand name with our safe and reliable solar panels. As Westinghouse Solar, we will continue to drive the adoption of solar power through our own installation services, through our retail channel via Lowe’s Home Improvement stores and through our expanding dealer channel network in the United States and Canada.”

AKNS is up 2 cents, or 2.3%, at 88 cents.

Jobs growth, Fed take center stage next week

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) � U.S. stock investors are likely to focus on jobs, the consumer and central bankers next week, with more tepid readings on the economy raising expectations for extra Federal Reserve stimulus.

A heavy week of data releases, culminating in Friday�s July jobs report, as well as meetings by the Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of England will likely overshadow earnings reports.

Click to Play U.S. next week: Fed, jobs, cars

Investors are likely to turn from a focus on earnings to the Federal Reserve's next rate meeting, July auto and retail sales and the July labor report. (Photo: Bloomberg)

More than half of S&P 500 SPX �companies, including Apple Inc. AAPL , Bank of America Corp. BAC � and Caterpillar Inc. CAT already have reported the latest quarter�s results.

Although 71% of large-cap U.S. stocks have reported earnings above the mean estimate, the blended growth rate for the index is currently at 3.3% � the lowest growth in 11 consecutive quarters, according to a FactSet analysis.

�On the whole it hasn�t been a bad season, given all the macro challenges, but some of the companies gave really weak forward guidance and they were punished [in the markets] for that,� said John Praveen, chief investment strategist at Prudential International.

Some of those strains on corporate growth may be showing up in sluggish jobs growth.

In June, the United States created 80,000 jobs, the third straight month of job growth of under 100,000. Economists polled by MarketWatch are expecting a break with that trend, with payrolls expanding by 110,000 in July.

With federal spending cuts and higher taxes due to kick in next year, plus the ongoing debt crisis in Europe, analysts worry that businesses have little incentive to hire.

Click to Play Europe next week: ECB, HSBC

Investors will be out for hints of further quantitative easing from both the FOMC minutes and the ECB news conference. A busy earnings week includes figures from HSBC, RBS and Fiat.

�There�s a great deal of uncertainty over what happens as we get into the second half of the year � there�s the �Europe fatigue�, anxiety about U.S. elections and the fiscal cliff,� Praveen added.

Europe vied with corporate news to sway sentiment in the latest week. Comments from policy makers including ECB President Mario Draghi on preserving the euro zone temporarily calmed fears about runaway Spanish borrowing costs, helping stocks into a late-week rally.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA �rose nearly 2% for the week, its third weekly gain, and recrossed 13,000 for the first time since early May. The S&P 500 Index SPX �gained 1.7% for the week, also the third weekly gain. The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP �rose 1.1%. See Friday�s Market Snapshot.

Consumer, Fed

Monday is light on both earnings and economic data, giving investors an extra day to digest Friday�s gross domestic product report, which underscored lingering sluggishness in consumption. The U.S. economy grew 1.5% in the second quarter. Read more on GDP.

�What was also interesting in the GDP numbers was that we clearly saw slower consumer spending but higher inventory numbers,� said Cam Albright, director of asset allocation at Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors. �The shelves are being stocked, but they�re not getting emptied.�

This Global Fast Food Chain is Expanding Like Crazy in China

The past weekend's news that China will allow its currency, the yuan, to appreciate against the dollar sent positive waves through the market for much of Monday's trading session. Aluminum and steel stocks were up, as were domestic consumer plays in mainland China. But, as StreetAuthority's David Sterman mentioned, it may take years before the benefits are realized.

That's why it's important to take a step back. Rather than using the weekend's news as the sole reason to buy a particular stock, investors should use it as one more reason to buy shares of companies that will capitalize on catalysts that are already at work -- and will be for years to come.

 

The biggest and yet one of the least talked-about stories related to China is its emerging middle class. Chinese officials worry about having to rely on American and European consumers to grow their economy -- rightly so, considering recent economic crises. It's in China's long-term interest to have a stronger currency, rising wages and at least a partial social safety net so its citizens will be encouraged to save less and spend more.

Fact: China already has a middle class of about 300 million people. That number is expected to exceed 500 million in 10 years.

Some more interesting facts: Nearly one new Kentucky Fried Chicken fast food restaurant opens in China every day. There are almost 4,000 KFC locations in China, compared to only about 1,100 McDonald's locations. Soon, there will be more KFCs in China than in the United States.

And that's not all that KFC parent Yum Brands (NYSE: YUM) has been up to. . .

The company opened more than 1,400 new restaurants around the world in 2009 -- 509 of those were in China. Yum operates and franchises the KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell brands, among others, and now has nearly 35,000 locations worldwide.

Yum isn't just a global play with a partial China angle -- it has a major footprint in the country. And there's good reason behind the aggressive expansion in China -- 34% of Yum's 2009 revenue came from its Chinese locations, despite having just over 10% of its total locations in the country.

The average Yum fast food location in China carries margins of more than 20%, according to its most recent annual report, and can achieve "cash payback" within two to three years.

The global recession caused Yum's same store sales to be flat, except in China, where sales grew +10%. Profits from Chinese operations were up +29% in 2009 after growing +28% in 2008.

The entire company carries an operating margin of 14% -- not bad for the restaurant business. The global slowdown didn't hurt Yum too bad either. In fact, earnings per share grew by +13% in 2009.

Yum believes its brands, particularly KFC, can be as prevalent in China as McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) is in the United States. The company has been generous to shareholders, having paid $8 billion in dividends and share repurchases since it spun off from PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) in 1997. And speaking of McDonald's, Yum's stock has outrun its golden-arched rival during the past 10 years with a gain of +640% compared to +160%.

> Yum has ambitious goals for China. Given its success so far, there's no reason to doubt that's possible. At less than 19 times earnings, the stock is reasonably valued on both a historical basis and compared to its peers, considering its long-term potential for global growth.

A Sea of Red for Green Dot

Pre-paid card company Green Dot (GDOT) is down 60% today following a disastrous second quarter report, in which management acknowledged that competition threatens its core business.

Green Dot’s 35 cents of core earnings per share were 3 cents below expectations. Revenue also fell short of Street estimates. But the road ahead is murky, and the company cut EPS expectations by 22%.

Although our growth was strong over the first half of 2012 and some notable new business wins could potentially provide meaningful tailwinds over the longer-term, we are lowering our guidance for the remainder of the year given that we now see a greater level of uncertainty going forward in our business as�the prepaid�marketplace continues to evolve,� said Chairman and CEO Steve Streit.

Numerous analysts downgraded the company’s shares.

“It is likely that deterioration of GreenDot�s market position and financial performance is just beginning,” wrote SunTrust Robinson Humphrey analyst Andrew Jeffrey in downgrading shares to Reduce from Buy. “This portends sustained EPS contraction and a structurally impaired valuation. These issues could be exacerbated by the 2015 Walmart contract renegotiation and the potential loss of exclusivity. Such an event could permanently impair organic-revenue growth and profitability.”

Invest Using Trade Binary Options

Trade Binary Options is an agreement where the trader pays for the right to obtain a predetermined return in case the outlay of the principal asset ends up greater than or lower than the targeted price.

It usually is a short term investment but yields high profits for beginners and experts in trading. It is an efficient way to invest for traders who have limited budget can still have a fixed return at around 60 to 85 percent.

Since binary option is getting more popular, lots of sites are coming out and introducing their binary options registration promotions. If you are one of those interested better read the following suggestions. The trading broker may need some of these guidelines to gain more profit in the financial market. Here is some of it.

Remember that there are two kinds of binary options, the American option and the European option. The most commonly used is usually the European style.

The European option is done only at the expiration date while the American option is done any time from the purchasing date including the expiration. Frequent monitoring of the trading activity is a must. This will give you the right timing on when you will grab the binary options contract. Expect to take hold of the pricing discrepancy when it moves higher.

The status should also be looked upon. The in money and the out money are monitored to see what the preceding prices are. This is to ensure positive positions against profit loss.

An advantage of having a trade binary choice is you don’t have to ask for a second opinion to a trader expert. This is due to an existing prediction has only one direction meaning, when you click on call option; it will predict on whatever the call is. It is also the same as when you will have a put option. It also has no long term expiration. As I have said earlier, it is a short term trading business. It trades on hourly and daily basis only. So you will easily determine your profits and loss.

The good thing about this instrument is there are marketable sites or companies that give out bonuses. For example, your investment is $1000 and you invested it to a reputable site or company. The site will then give a $100 incentive when you join them.

Remember the term “binary”. It means two and you only have two options and there is no other to choose from. So the risk is lower. The trader must have the determination and the confidence. As a trader, understanding the terminologies and interpretations must also be done.

As an investment intrument, it may also be a good solution for people who are still looking for a job. As long as they are determined and study the properties and the basics of trading, they can also gain profit by entering this kind of business and acquiring a binary option.

These are some of the tips for binary options trading. If you want to move to a higher standard of trading, be sure to practice the basics and level up to gain more profit in the future.

Binary Options, sometimes called digital or fixed return options, is a simplified yet exciting method of trading the financial markets. Binary options are ideal for traders who want to profit from both rising & falling markets. Discover the benefits of Binary Options today http://www.binaryoptionslive.com

Top Stocks For 2011-12-5-20

Netflix, Inc. (Nasdaq:NFLX) announced that its “Just for Kids” section is now available to Netflix members in the U.S. on the Wii� game console.

Netflix, Inc. provides subscription based Internet services for TV shows and movies in the United States and internationally. The company allows its subscribers to watch unlimited TV shows and movies streamed over the Internet to their televisions, computers, and mobile devices.

Majestic Gold Corp. (MJGCF.PK)

Majestic Gold Corp. engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties in China. The company focuses on its gold project located in the prolific gold region of Song Jiagou in eastern Shandong Province. Majestic Gold Corp. is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Majestic Gold Corp. (MJGCF.PK) has arranged a $10,000,000 loan to advance its Song Jiagou project in China. Nine million dollars ($9,000,000) from the proceeds from the loan will be used by the Company to in connection with its Song Jiagou project and the balance of one million dollars ($1,000,000) for general working capital purposes.

The loan will have a one year term and loan principal will be convertible at the option of the lender in whole or in part into common shares (”Shares”) of the Company until twelve months from the date of the loan advance at the price of $0.205 per Share. The loan will bear interest at the rate of 7.5% per annum, payable on maturity, and accrued and unpaid interest will be convertible at the option of the lender in whole or in part into shares of the Company until twelve months from the date of the loan advance at Market Price at the time of conversion.

The lender is at arm’s length from the Company and will not become an insider as a result of any conversion of principal and interest. All shares issued on any conversion of loan principal or interest will be subject to a four month hold period from the date of advance of loan proceeds. The loan is subject to acceptance by the TSX Venture Exchange.

As additional consideration for the loan, the Company has agreed to forward at least $9 million to Majestic Yantai Gold Ltd., a British Virgin Islands company owned 94% by the Company to be used to further advance its Song Jiagou project. The Borrower has also agreed to a 90 day period for reciprocal due diligence reviews and discussions for the possible further involvement of the Lender in the Song Jiagou project.

In the event that no further agreement is reached between the Lender and the Company during the 90 day period, then the loan and a minimum of seven (7) months interest will automatically convert to shares in the Company at a price of $0.205 per share and the interest at Market Price respectively. In addition the Company is pleased to announce that it has arranged a non-brokered private placement of up to 15,000,000 shares to be issued at the price of $0.20 per share for gross proceeds of $3,000,000.
Pure gold is too soft for ordinary use and is hardened by alloying with silver, copper, and other metals. Gold and its many alloys are most often used in jewelry, coinage and as a standard for monetary exchange in many countries. Because of gold’s’ high electrical conductivity and resistance to corrosion and other desirable combinations of physical and chemical properties, gold also emerged in the late 20th century as an essential industrial metal.

For more information about Majestic Gold Corp please visit http://www.majesticgold.net

Portfolio Recovery Associates Inc. (Nasdaq:PRAA) a specialized financial and business services company and market leader in the consumer debt purchase and collection industry, announced the formation of a new subsidiary, PRA Professional Services, LLC.

Portfolio Recovery Associates, Inc. engages in the purchase, collection, and management of portfolios of defaulted consumer receivables. It detects, collects, and processes unpaid and normal-course accounts receivables owed primarily to credit grantors, governments, and retailers.

Lancaster Colony Corporation (Nasdaq:LANC) announced that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend of 36 cents per share on the company’s common stock, marking 49 consecutive years of increasing regular cash dividends. Lancaster Colony is one of only 16 U.S. companies to have increased cash dividends each year for 49 years. The dividend will be payable December 30, 2011 to shareholders of record on December 9, 2011 . Lancaster Colony Corporation engages in the manufacture and marketing of consumer products focusing primarily on specialty foods for the retail and foodservice markets in the United States.

Apogee Enterprises Earnings Preview

Apogee Enterprises (Nasdaq: APOG  ) hasn't been able to establish an earnings trend, bouncing between beating and falling short of estimates during the past fiscal year. The company will unveil its latest earnings on Wednesday. Apogee Enterprises provides technologies involving the design and development of value-added glass products, services, and systems.

What analysts say:

  • Buy, sell, or hold?: Half of analysts think investors should stand pat on Apogee Enterprises while the remaining half rate the stock as a buy. While analysts still rate the stock a moderate buy, they are a little more optimistic about it compared to three months ago.
  • Revenue forecasts: On average, analysts predict $170.8 million in revenue this quarter. That would represent a rise of 16.1% from the year-ago quarter.
  • Wall Street earnings expectations: The average analyst estimate is earnings of $0.11 per share. Estimates range from $0.08 to $0.14.

What our community says:
CAPS All-Stars are solidly behind the stock with 95.1% giving it an outperform rating. The community at large agrees with the All-Stars with 93.5% awarding it a rating of outperform. Fools are bullish on Apogee Enterprises and haven't been shy with their opinions lately, logging 104 posts in the past 30 days. Even with a robust four out of five stars, Apogee Enterprises' CAPS rating falls a little short of the community's upbeat outlook.

Management:
The company's revenue has now risen for two straight quarters. The company boosted its gross margin by 3.2 percentage points in the last quarter. Revenue rose 14.5% while cost of sales rose 10.2% to $139.6 million from a year earlier.

Now let's look at how efficient management is at running the business. Traditionally, margins represent the efficiency with which companies capture portions of sales dollars. The following table shows gross, operating, and net margins over the past four quarters.

Quarter

Q2

Q1

Q4

Q3

Gross Margin

15.7%

15.4%

15.7%

15.7%

Operating Margin

(1.6%)

(2.2%)

(3.8%)

(1.3%)

Net Margin

(1.0%)

(1.4%)

(3.0%)

(1.6%)

For all our Apogee Enterprises-specific analysis, including earnings and beyond, add Apogee Enterprises to My Watchlist.

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Earnings estimates provided by Zacks

Young Boomers Will Need More Time to Recover Losses: Mintel

A report from Mintel released Tuesday found boomers between 45 and 54 will take longer to recover from the recession. This seems to conflict with a report from Cogent Research, also released Tuesday, which found younger boomers' assets rose 10% from 2006 to 2010.

Almost half of younger boomers (47%) said they have been limiting their spending to necessities for the past year, compared with 33% of survey respondents overall. Fifty-one percent say they will "permanently decrease" the amount of unnecessary purchases they make in the future, compared with 44% overall. Of the younger boomers surveyed, 39% said they worry more about retirement than they ever have before.

“This last recession has definitely not treated everyone equally,” Susan Menke, vice president and behavioral economist at Mintel, said in a press release. “One reason could be that the younger Boomers are the age group that was just getting started when the severe double dip recessions of the 1980s hit, and they have never fully recovered. Another reason may be that this is the ‘sandwich’ generation, burdened with educational expenses for their kids and, for some, health care costs for aging parents.”

Non-Boomer investors however indicated they were ready to be more proactive in saving for the future. Forty-four percent of survey respondents between 18 and 24, and 34% of respondents between 35 and 44 said they will "permanently increase" the amount of money they save. Almost 10% of respondents between 18 and 44 have already started saving more.

“We continue to see numbers indicating that the recession was a wake-up call across age groups, just in different ways,” Menke added. “Everyone is more concerned about having adequate funds to retire after this recession. Unlike the Baby Boomers, however, younger age groups are able to do something about it, which offers a potential opportunity for financial services firms.”

Friday, July 27, 2012

QE: $6 Trillion and Rising, No End in Sight...


Back in April, renowned investor Jim Sinclair said that the U.S. should expect an additional $17 trillion of quantitative easing in the Fed's forecast. Today, Reuters reported on why nearly all other investors across the globe believe further QE will be enacted in the near future...

Since 2008, $6 trillion has been printed as part of the Fed's quantitative easing response to the '08 market collapse and debilitating recession. According to Reuters, that money-printing trend will be here to stay for the next few years as the world's “Big Four” central banks -- the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan -- create new money by expanding their balance sheets and purchasing government bonds from their banks. In four years time, the balance sheets of the Big Four have more than tripled – currently setting at $9 trillion without a sustainable recovery in site.

Investors also agree with the notion that more easing is in the works...

Bank of America Merrill Lynch's Gary Baker said, “It is almost as if investors are saying QE will happen no matter what.” In their recent monthly survey of 260 fund managers, approximately three out of four said they expect the ECB to follow-through with another “liquidity operation” no later than this coming October. Roughly 50% believe the Fed “will return to the pumps over the same period.”

But don't expect further easing to perform any miracles. It's going to take a whole lot of time to cure the crisis and repair the debt-damaged economy we're living in. 

From Reuters:

Recapitalizing banks; stabilizing housing and mortgage markets responsible for deteriorating loan quality; further deep integration of euro fiscal links to support the shared currency; and capping government debt piles in the United States, Japan and Britain will - even for optimists - take many years.

The concern is that monetary authorities are increasingly acting as government agents responsible as much for stabilizing bond markets and keeping banks clean as for fighting inflation.

The question is not whether central banks can withdraw this money again once broad money growth gains traction - most think that's mechanically easy - it's whether they will be able to resist pressure to carry on underwriting government deficits.

Some economists assert that the “heyday” of independent central banking may be coming to an end amidst modern fiscal policy.

 

CGG Veritas Whiffs on Earnings

CGG Veritas (NYSE: CGV  ) reported earnings on Mar. 1. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended Dec. 31 (Q4), CGG Veritas met expectations on revenue and whiffed on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue dropped and GAAP earnings per share increased.

Gross margin contracted, operating margin dropped, and net margin grew.

Revenue details
CGG Veritas booked revenue of $860.1 million. The seven analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ predicted a top line of $855.1 million on the same basis. GAAP reported sales were 4.6% lower than the prior-year quarter's $901.6 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

EPS details
EPS came in at $0.10. The one earnings estimate compiled by S&P Capital IQ averaged $0.47 per share. GAAP EPS were $0.10 for Q4 against -$0.24 per share for the prior-year quarter.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Non-GAAP figures may vary to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 19.4%, 360 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 7.8%, 410 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was 1.8%, 590 basis points better than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $839.0 million.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $3.51 billion. The average EPS estimate is $1.95.

Investor sentiment
The stock has a five-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 509 members out of 519 rating the stock outperform, and 10 members rating it underperform. Among 187 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 186 give CGG Veritas a green thumbs-up, and one gives it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on CGG Veritas is outperform, with an average price target of $22.94.

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  • Add CGG Veritas to My Watchlist.

QCOM Up 5%: FYQ3 Misses, Q4 View Light

Wireless chip maker Qualcomm (QCOM) this afternoon reported fiscal Q3 revenue and earnings per share a little light of consensus, and a Q4 view below analysts’ estimates.

Revenue in the three months ended in June rose 28%, year over year, and fell 6%, quarter to quarter, to $4.63 billion, yielding EPS of 85 cents, excluding some costs.

Analysts on average were expecting $4.67 billion and 86 cents.

Qualcomm’s shipments of “MSM” chipsets in the quarter rose 18%, year over year, to $141 million units. That was a 7% increase from Q2′s level.

For the current quarter, the company sees revenue of $4.45 billion to $4.85 billion, and EPS of 78 cents to 84 cents.

That is below the average estimate of $4.91 billion and 89 cents.

CEO Paul Jacobs remarked,

Our growth estimates for 3G/4G device shipments in calendar 2012 have moderated slightly, and we now expect the demand profile of the calendar year to be more back-end loaded as new devices are launched for the holiday season.� Although our outlook for semiconductor volumes in the fiscal fourth quarter has been reduced from our prior expectations, we are ramping supply of our 28 nanometer chipsets to help enable what we expect to be a strong December quarter for our semiconductor business.

Specifically, the company is now expecting 3G and 4G device shipments in calendar 2012 of 875 million to 935 million, down from a prior estimated range of 885 million to 945 million.

Qualcomm shares are down 90 cents, or 1.7%, at $55.15.

Update: During a phone call following the report, Qualcomm’s head of investor relations,�Bill Davidson, clarified that the company’s plan for shipments of 134 million to 142 million this quarter is lower than previously expected.

That is mostly attributable to the previously disclosed issue of limitations in getting chips made at 28 nanometer feature sizes.

Asked about demand, Davidson said there had been “no major structural change” in the adoption of smartphones worldwide, just the ability to get chips to the products in time, he said.

Average selling prices were improving on the licensing side as there was a greater mix of smartphones in licenses versus lower-priced data “dongles” for laptop attachment.

Of course, Davidson offered no specific comments about customers, be they Apple (AAPL), Samsung Electronics (005930KS),�Nokia (NOK) or others. But the different in calendar year outlook of 10 million devices is not a very big adjustment, executives pointed out.

Davidson said the company expects “significant” improvement in calendar Q4 for its supply of chips. However, he added that there can tend to be some “double ordering” of chips when supply becomes tight. As a result, it’s not entirely clear where supply may stand relative to demand by that time because it’s not entirely clear yet what will be real demand and what will be a buffer customers create for themselves.

Update 2: Shares of Qualcomm have reversed earlier losses and are up $2.95, or 5%, at $59. Shares of competitors and some other wireless chip makers are all higher this evening. Broadcom (BRCM) shares are up $95, or 3%, at $31.60. Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) are up 3 cents at $13.09; shares of Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), which reported better-than-expected fiscal Q3 results this evening, are up $2.56, or almost 10%, at $29.20; and shares of RF Micro Devices (RFMD) are up 7 cents, or 1.7%, at $4.25.

Yingli Green Energy Shares Popped: What You Need to Know

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE  ) jumped as much as 10% today after the company released earnings.

So what: Revenue jumped 36% to $667.7 million, but gross margins fell to 10.8% from 22.1% in the second quarter as low sales prices weighed on earnings. But on an adjusted basis, earnings per share surprised analysts, reaching $0.14 per share, exceeding the $0.02 loss they had expected.

Now what: There is still a lot of uncertainty for Chinese solar manufacturers considering the vast oversupply in the industry and a European debt crisis hanging over the biggest market. But Yingli is one of the strongest Chinese manufacturers and could emerge a winner when an industry shakeout is complete. That said, I'm not rushing out to buy shares today and would stick with U.S.-based SunPower (Nasdaq: SPWR  ) , which has higher efficiency panels, similar margins, and a large project backlog to smooth over rough patches in earnings.

Richmont Holdings Readies Avon Bid: Report

Private company Richmont Holdings is putting together a deal to buy Avon Products (AVP), Bloomberg reportedjust before the close of trading on Thursday.

Avon shares spiked in the final minutes of trading, rising 5.5% after spending most of the day trading slightly in the red. Avon recently rejected a bid from Coty for $23.25 per share, or $10 billion. Richmont is reportedly in the process of arranging financing for its Avon bid.

Correction: Richmont does not own Mary Kay, as originally reported by Bloomberg. Richmont’s founder was once the CEO of Mary Kay.

This Company Just Tripled Its Dividend

In a recent article, I touched on several of the opportunities available to income investors in the energy industry. It just takes knowing where to look. 

You see, we recently discovered that more than half of the 21 best income stocks of the past decade come from the energy sector. But since most of the energy investments on that list are not household names, it occurred to me that many investors may not even know the sort of opportunities that are waiting out there.

So in the weeks and months ahead, I'll be bringing you some more insight on my favorite "energy+income" investments that you may not be aware of.

 

For example, one of my top-rated stocks for subscribers to my Energy & Income advisory is a best-in-class player from a lesser-known energy niche -- oil refineries.

The company enjoys distinct advantages that have enabled it to quadruple its profits and triple its dividend in the past year, even while some of its competitors are closing up shop.

What's been driving the company's profits is something called a "crack spread." Put simply, the crack spread is the difference between what the refinery paid to get raw oil and the money it will be paid for its refined product. In short, the greater the margin... the greater the refinery's profit.

Refiners on the Gulf Coast and East Coast pay around $115 per barrel for Brent crude, most of which is imported from West Africa, the U.K., Russia, and Venezuela. 

But Valero (NYSE: VLO), the nation's largest independent refiner, is fortunate enough to have access to cheaper oil from the Eagle Ford Shale in south Texas -- and has been paying roughly $20 less per barrel. 

That gives the company a big edge over its competitors who have to use more expensive crude from overseas. As a result, Valero's bottom line has exploded on its increased profit margins.

For the third quarter ended September 30th, Valero reported net income of $1.2 billion, or $2.11 per share. That's a powerful 297% increase from the $303 million earned this time last year -- almost quadruple the amount of profit.

Higher throughput volumes do deserve some of the credit. With demand for refined products on the rise, the company is running 2.6 million barrels through its refineries every day -- 389,000 barrels more per day compared to the third quarter of 2010. 

But more important are the fatter crack spread margins that are really juicing the bottom line. 

Twelve months ago, Valero was pocketing $8.13 in gross profit for every barrel of refined product it shipped. But the spread between the costs of raw materials coming in and the sales price of finished products going out has widened dramatically. So as of mid-November, that margin had soared to $13.24 per barrel.

Subtract out operating expenses, and Valero is earning a net profit of $8.16 per barrel -- up from just $2.92 a year ago. 

While others are abandoning their refining operations -- like Sunoco (NYSE: SUN) -- or spinning them off as separate companies to reduce the drag on their bottom lines -- like ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) -- Valero has gone on a shopping spree, absorbing properties in Louisiana and the U.K. at discounted prices.

And in a bold vote of confidence for expansion projects slated to come online in 2012, Valero's board just tripled the firm's quarterly dividend.

Valero now pays a $0.15 dividend -- up from $0.05 earlier this year -- for a 3% yield. I know that on the surface a 3% yield is not going to entice most income investors, but by raising its dividend by a factor of three, Valero is signaling its commitment to rewarding investors. 

On top of that, there's no reason this industry leader should be trading at just 5.1 times earnings and for just 70% of its book value. Sooner or later, the market will have to recognize Valero's accomplishments and re-price the stock accordingly.

Top Stocks For 2011-12-25-14


The term VoIP is officially an acronym for Voice over Internet Protocol, but is also used to loosely refer to any application where packet-based data networks are used to packet switch telephone calls in real-time. This type of telephony contrasts to traditional hard-wired analog telephony that is circuit switched known as TDM (Time Division Multiplexing). Voice over Internet Protocol converts the analog voice in which we speak to digital data, and then transmits it over internet to the desired.

Crown Equity Holdings Inc. (OTC:CRWE) is pleased to announce that it has entered into a joint venture to deploy VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) technology delivering voice, video and data services to residential and commercial customers. The joint venture company is Crown Tele Services Inc. which was a wholly-owned subsidiary of Crown Equity Holdings Inc. Crown Equity Holdings Inc. will own fifty percent (50%) interest in the joint venture.

Commenting on the joint venture, Kenneth Bosket, President of Crown Equity Holdings Inc., said: �We are excited to deliver VoIP communications solutions specifically designed to meet the business and residential market needs in this fast-growing global market.�

Crown Equity Holdings Inc., together with its digital network of Websites, offers media advertising, branding and marketing services as a worldwide online multi-media publisher. The company focuses on the distribution of information for the purpose of bringing together a targeted audience and the advertisers that want to reach them. Its advertising services cover and connect a range of marketing specialties, as well as providing search engine optimization for clients interested in online media awareness.

For more information, visit http://www.crownequityholdings.com

Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ:ORCL) will hold its Annual Meeting of Stockholders at 10:00 a.m. PT in the Oracle Conference Center, located at 350 Oracle Parkway, Redwood City at Oracle’s headquarters. Oracle’s stockholders as of August 15, 2011 are invited to attend the meeting and should refer to Oracle’s proxy statement available at www.oracle.com/investor for details regarding required documentation to gain admission to the meeting.

Oracle Corporation, an enterprise software company, develops, manufactures, markets, distributes, and services database and middleware software, applications software, and hardware systems worldwide.

Littelfuse, Inc. (NASDAQ:LFUS) announced the addition of the SP4040 Series to its expanding line of TVS Diode Arrays (SPA� family) providing lightning and ESD protection for broadband interfaces. The SP4040 is specifically designed for protection of high speed applications such as 1Gb Ethernet and T3/E3 data lines from lightning-induced transients up to 100A (tP=2/10�s).

Littelfuse, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells circuit protection devices in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific. It operates through three segments: Electronics, Automotive, and Electrical.

VeriSign, Inc. (NASDAQ:VRSN) announced that its earnings call for the third quarter 2011 will take place on Thurs., Oct. 27, 2011, at 4:30 pm (EDT). The third quarter 2011 earnings news release will be distributed to the wire services at approximately 4:05 pm (EDT) and will also be available directly from the Investor Relations section of the company’s website at www.verisigninc.com.

VeriSign, Inc. provides Internet infrastructure services to various networks worldwide. The company provides domain name registry services and infrastructure assurance services.

Cabot Microelectronics Shares Skyrocketed: What You Need to Know

Although we don't believe in timing the market or panicking over market movements, we do like to keep an eye on big changes -- just in case they're material to our investing thesis.

What: Shares of Cabot Microelectronics (Nasdaq: CCMP  ) have skyrocketed today, up by as much as 26% before cooling off a bit, and currently up a healthy 16% as of this writing, after the company announced a new capital management initiative to return value to shareholders.

So what: The company will be paying a special dividend of $15 per share to shareholders during the first calendar quarter of 2012, costing roughly $345 million total. It has also increased its authorized share repurchase program to $150 million, up from the previous available authorization of $83 million. Cabot plans on funding the special dividend with cash on hand and an anticipated new term loan facility, split evenly between the two sources.

Now what: Cabot CEO William Noglows said the company will continue to focus on its long-term growth strategy and balance investment opportunities with its desire to distribute capital to shareholders. Prior to making the decision, the company's board considered its cash balance, current credit market conditions, and Cabot's ability to service the debt and fund future operations, and the implications of using leverage. Using debt to distribute cash to shareholders is a little odd, but if leverage is what the board wants, leverage is what it will get.

4 Contrarian Picks To Beat The Market

With continued uncertainty in the macro landscape, investors are struggling to identify stocks that generate alpha despite the turbulent investment environment. This article seeks to pinpoint stocks that have an edge. These are companies which we are more optimistic than the Street and reveals opportunities that the market has not yet priced in.

Verizon (VZ): Industry returns have been under pressure with rising smartphone penetration driving up costs and capex at a faster rate than revenue. Subsidies have been the biggest source of pressure, with costs rising 34% from 2010 to 2011. Verizon started to change this around the beginning of 2011 by tightening upgrade policies and implementing upgrade fees. Volume upgrade and device subsidies are expected to decline after years of steady growth, driving a sharp improvement in margins. There are signs across the industry of growing discipline around pricing, subsidies, and upgrades. If this discipline holds, there is upside to margins and earnings growth for all carriers. The changes to upgrade policies will lower the upgrade rate by 310bps y/y, boosting margins by ~100bps, and that the upgrade fee of $30 will boost margins by a further 40bps

Key Catalysts:

· Carriers continuing to push out upgrade eligibility.

· Lower subsidies.

· Increase in pricing.

Intel Corp. (INTC): Longer-term, Intel Corp. can grow revenue at a 7-12% CAGR with PCCG growing at 5-7%, DCG at 13-17% and Tablets/smartphones adding an incremental 2-3% CAGR (assuming 25- 30% share). The stock enjoys core manufacturing advantage which is meaningful, consequential and widening, which the market is not factoring in fully. This lead helps INTC position well in core markets (PC, Servers) and creates opportunities in new markets (Tablets, smartphones, Networking, and Embedded). The stock presents long-term CAGR of at least 10% and earnings power approaching $4.00 - more than supportive of $35 target price.

Key Catalysts:

· Growth numbers in Storage/Networking.

· Upside to Enterprise Server unit estimates driven by an aging installed base and Cloud/HPC.

· Performance of key products : Ultrabook, Windows 8, Romley, Ivy Bridge and Computex.

Paychex (PAYX): Paychex is well positioned for a sustained recovery in private sector jobs, continued outsourcing and, at some point, maybe a back up in rates. The company has no direct exposure to public sector jobs. PAYX stands out for its high quality, defensive characteristics: largely recurring revenue, highly scalable operating model, strong cash flow, no debt, and 4% yield. 100% of earnings are sourced in the United States. Revenue and earnings growth would accelerate going forward, reflecting an uptick in sales, increases in checks per client and improving retention. Over a normal cycle, PAYX can grow earnings low double-digits.

Key Catalysts:

· Successful price increase implementation in F13.

· Improving retention and new sales.

· Hosting of its first ever investor conference in mid-July, where that management will lay out a long-term strategy for driving growth.

Illumina, Inc. (ILMN): Illumina return to sequential growth over the past two quarters, driven by improving consumable pull-through and the MiSeq launch, are key tenets behind our greater comfort on ILMN's short-term health. Longer-term, the accuracy and ease of use of MiSeq should help ILMN penetrate the clinical market, while ILMN's management team should be able to introduce new products that will allow it to remain a leader in the genomics space. Finally, while ILMN is well-positioned to succeed on its own, there is also the possibility of Roche returning into the mix, providing some support to ILMN's stock around $40/share.

The company is much better positioned to handle some of the challenges in government/academic end markets than it was last year. ~80% of the company's revenues come from customers in government/academic end markets. The customers have adjusted their buying patterns significantly this year so there would not be any spending fall off a cliff again in 2H 2012 as in 2H 2011.

Key Catalysts:

· Quarterly earnings results, as investors monitor the uptake of competing sequencing technologies from ILMN, LIFE and others.

· On a more macro level, any debate or decisions on government funding of genomic research will impact ILMN's stock price given how leveraged they are to this market.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.