That zipping sound you hear is home-health provider Amedisys‘ (AMED) 24% surge on news that private-equity giant Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. has a stake of more than 8% in the stock.
CRT Capital analyst Sheryl Skolnick, a critic of company management, upgrades to “fair value” this morning and essentially tells clients to get out of KKR’s way, since the firm could end up ushering in a new board and management:
There are times when this analyst will ‘take on’ shareholders with differing views and there are times when she knows, from long experience, not to even think about it. This is one of the latter times ….
We know that when activists get involved, strange and interesting things happen, even (especially?) with entrenched managements. For the record, we think it unlikely that this part of KKR will take AMED private: filing a 13-D that almost surely takes the stock up would be that act of amateurs, in our view, not the act of a savvy firm like KKR. Some may conclude from the language of the 13-D that KKR may not actually become active. We reviewed it and found it nearly identical to other activists’ initial statements: then things changed. Thus, a new Board and management does seem likely and is indeed the strategy we advocated in our 4/3/13 report and THAT is the root cause of our upgrade.
But for the 13-D we would NOT have upgraded. Indeed, we were in the midst of preparing a strong reiteration of our view that AMED cannot be fixed by this CEO and his Board. We reiterate that view here and strongly suspect that any activist likely has or will reach that same conclusion.
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