It’s time to check in with the mammoth computer conference going on in Taipei, Taiwan this week, Computex 2012, where some folks from the Street are kicking the tires on the latest and greatest in laptops, tablets and all the rest form Microsoft (MSFT), Intel (INTC) and partners, and, especially the “ultrabook” line of laptop computers the duo are encouraging hardware makers to pursue.
For a quick rundown of the new kit that was shown, check out a post this morning by Patrick Moorhead, the tech pundit and former Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) executive, over at TechPinions.
Brian White of Topeka Capital Markets today reflects on his meeting with LCD panel makers for computers at the show, whose feedback suggests a somewhat better shape to the latter half of the year for panel shipments relative to what was a weak second half last year. That depends on their not being a further economic deterioration globally.
As for ultrabooks:
Regarding Ultrabooks at the panel makers, one company indicated that Ultrabook programs are running a bit below expectations thus far, while another panel maker discussed strong trends and a healthy margin profile. At Computex, Asustek (2357-NT$291: NR) unveiled a wide array of well designed new tablets, Ultrabooks and hybrid devices, including Windows 8-based (including Windows RT) products running on Intel (INTC-$25.04: NR) and NVIDIA (NVDA-$11.73: NR) processors. The panel makers expect to more aggressively ramp these new ultrabook programs in 3Q12 and many new Windows 8-based tablets are expected to be in production. Additionally, we were warned that there will be many “Ultrabook-like” products in the market that are not true Ultrabooks due to pressure on OEMs to cut corners on costs. For example, lower SSD content through hybrid solutions is one way to reduce costs and price points.
Williams Financial Group‘s Cody Acree writes that Intel and partners may be having trouble bringing down prices, and he actually sees some improved prospects for competing laptops running chips from AMD, which don’t come with the ultrabook brand, but which aim to achieve similar feats of slimness and lightness:
As expected there are a multitude of Intel-based Ultrabooks being displayed, however in our view the number is less than we expect was originally anticipated as relatively high price points averaging around $1,000 have caused some OEMs/ODMs to reduce emphasis on the category. Intel is pushing for reduced costs and for the ecosystem to drive innovative ways to bring prices down, however with touch screens about to be added to the platform specification, we expect strict Ultrabook prices to remain above mainstream for the near-term. A stand-out is AMD based derivatives that are allowing OEMs/ODMs to offer more competitive prices solutions, while maintaining many of the Ultrabook features. We believe this, and the improved performance of AMD�s offerings will drive share gains over the next several quarters.
Nomura Equity Research‘s Romit Shah writes that the first tablets using Windows are overwhelmingly of the x86 variety, Intel’s instruction-set architecture, but that there are some models running on chips based on designs by Intel rival ARM Holdings (ARMH):
Most OEMs including ASUS, Acer, Lenovo, Samsung and MSI announced Intel�s Clover Trail-based Win 8 tablets. Acer is sticking with x86-only Win 8 tablets and does not plan to offer ARM-based Win RT tablets. Intel indicated that there are around 20 x86-based Win 8
tablets in development. We are not surprised that the first phase of Win8 products launches is dominated by the traditional Intel-based systems. That said, ARM-based offerings weren�t completely missing in action. ASUS (Nvidia), Toshiba (OMAP), and Samsung (Qualcomm) demonstrated multiple ARM-based Win RT tablets.
Intel is rolling up its sleeves to deal directly with component suppliers who bring touch and other capabilities to the products. Touch alone may add $100 to the $699 base price of ultrabooks, he calculates:
Intel is deepening its engagement with the Ultrabook ecosystem by investing in a number of companies that develop touchscreen panels such as TPK, Wintek, and HannsTouch Solutions. Intel is pushing touch panel companies to increase the supply for 13� touch panels ahead of the back-to-school demand. As expected there are a multitude of Intel-based Ultrabooks being displayed, however in our view the number is less than we expect was originally anticipated as relatively high price points averaging around $1,000 have caused some OEMs/ODMs to reduce emphasis on the category. Intel is pushing for reduced costs and for the ecosystem to drive innovative ways to bring prices down, however with touch screens about to be added to the platform specification, we expect strict Ultrabook prices to remain above mainstream for the near-term. A stand-out is AMD based derivatives that are allowing OEMs/ODMs to offer more competitive prices solutions, while maintaining many of the Ultrabook features. We believe this, and the improved performance of AMD�s offerings will drive share gains over the next several quarters.
David Wong of Wells Fargo offers the most upbeat note of the bunch, reiterating an Outperform rating on shares of Intel.
“We remain very positive on computer-related stocks in general and Intel in particular,” writes Wong.
“We think the investment community may be underestimating the potential for new products, such as ultrabooks, tablets, smartphones and Romley servers, to stimulate demand in the second half of this year.”
Wong is particularly intrigued by a low-cost model from Dell (DELL) among the plethora of offerings:
We think it is notable that Dell is offering an Ultrabook, available today in selected countries, at a $600 price point. There were also on display Window RT and Windows 8 tablets from Asustek, Lenovo and Acer. Intel stated that more than 35 Ultrabook designs are or will be available within 30 days for purchase and that more than 110 designs are expected to arrive within the next year, and that it has it has over 20 Windows 8-enabled tablet design wins for its upcoming 32nm Intel Clover Trail Atom processors.
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