With Ukraine fear subsiding, jobs in focus

NEW YORK -- With Russia backing away from its war games in Ukraine — at least for now — an old Wall Street worry is back in focus: jobs.

On Friday, the government issues its February employment report. How many jobs were created, and what the new unemployment rate is, have implications for Federal Reserve policy. It also provides an update on the health of the economy and could influence investor confidence, says Kristina Hooper, U.S. investment strategist at Allianz Global Investors.

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Wall Street is forecasting 150,000 new jobs in February, up from a disappointing 113,000 in January, PNC says. Economists expect the jobless rate to remain unchanged at 6.6%.

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Getting a true measure of the health of the job market may prove difficult, due to last month's "snowpocalyptic" weather, which likely had a negative impact on job growth, Hooper says. "It's unclear how big a role weather will play," she says. For the same reason, Friday's jobs report most likely won't "factor too heavily into Fed policy." New Fed chair Janet Yellen reiterated last week that it will take lots of bad news for the Fed to reconsider its current timetable to withdraw its market-friendly stimulus.

The wild card? Another weak jobs number could turn the mood of consumers to the dark side. "Consumer psyches remain somewhat fragile," Hooper says. "Further labor market weakness or escalating tensions in Ukraine could short-circuit the recent surge" in confidence.