Sterne Agee’s Vijay Rakesh this morning cut his estimates for Intel (INTC), warning that the markets for personal computers and for enterprise gear are “starting to slow again given macro uncertainties, and a slower Win8 uptake in the channel,” referring to the expected release later this year of Microsoft’s (MSFT) “Windows 8” operating system.
Rakesh, who has a Neutral rating on Intel shares and a $26 price target, cut his estimate for Q3 to $14.6 billion and 63 cents from $14.65 billion and 64 cents. That is below the consensus estimate of $14.85 billion and 67 cents.
For Q4, he cut his estimate to $15.2 billion and 66 cents from a prior $15.4 billion and 69 cents. Again, consensus is higher at $15.89 billion and 78 cents.
Rakesh sees notebook computer unit growth of 10% in Q3, down from a prior 12.5% estimate, and server unit growth of 4.5%, down from a prior 5%.
Microsoft’s next version of Windows will probably prompt a delay in PC purchases, he thinks:
We believe while Win8 will be introduced at June Taiwan Computex, it could miss the back-to-school C3Q12 and fall short of the optimistic Street estimates looking for a better than seasonal C3Q12 (up 9% q/q). We believe Win8 is now a late C3Q12 or early C4Q12 event. We could therefore see Retailer/consumer OEM PC demand slower ahead of the wait for a Win8 release, a delay also driven by higher SSD-touch platform costs among others and hence a slightly muted C3Q12.
Corporate server sales may be weak, he thinks:
Also Enterprise Server Markets Potentially Slower – While the datacenter- cloud markets (~20% of the Server Market) continues to grow, the core Enterprise market might be slower given macro uncertainties and commentary last week from the major PC OEMs on weaker Services business and IT spend from Europe.
Intel shares this morning are up 52 cents, or 2%, at $26.25.
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