Marvell Favors Reversing Earnings-Driven After-Hours Direction In Next-Day Trade

Marvell Technology Group (MRVL) is due with its Q4 results after the bell tonight, and analysts polled by Thomson Reuters are expecting the company to report earnings of $0.17 per share on revenue of $740 million.

MRVL has reversed direction between the sessions following earnings-driven after-hours moves in 18 of the last 30 quarters we've tracked.

Looking deeper into the data, the stock has followed earnings news with gains in 19 quarters, expanding that move just eight times, however.

When shares decline in response to earnings, which has happened 11 times, more aggressive next-day moves took place five times, or less than 50% of the time.

• On Nov. 17, 2011, MRVL advanced 3.8% in after-hours trade after topping Q3 estimates. The stock moved higher the following day, closing the Nov. 18 regular session up 6.4%.
• On Aug. 18, 2011, MRVL advanced 13.7% in evening trade after topping Q2 estimates and issuing mostly upbeat guidance. The stock saw its evening gains narrow in next-day trade, closing the Aug. 19 regular session up a more modest 5.9%.
• On May 26, 2011, the stock gained 9.2% in after-hours trading following a Q1 miss but strong Q2 guidance. Shares rose a stronger 11% the next day.
• On March 3, 2011, the stock fell 5.6% on a Q4 miss. The stock fell 11.4% the next day.
• On Nov. 18, 2010, MRVL fell 2.5% in after the regular session. But shares jumped 6% by the close of the next day's regular session.
• On Aug. 19, 2010, MRVL surged 10% in after-hours trade after posting in-line earnings results, announcing a stock buyback plan and guiding mostly above Street estimates for its Q3. The stock cut some of its gains the next day, closing the Aug. 20 regular session up 8.4%.
• On May 20, 2010, the stock gained 2% after a Q1 beat. Shares eased 0.3% the next day.
• On March 4, 2010, the stock fell 6% after mixed Q4 results and Q1 guidance that was largely above the Street's view. Shares rebounded to gain 1.3% the next day.
• On Dec. 3, 2009, MRVL gained 5.5% in after-hours action after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock jumped higher the following day, closing the Dec. 4 regular session up 9.2%.
• On Aug. 27, 2009, MRVL jumped 7.6% in after-hours trade after topping Q2 expectations. The gain narrowed the following day as MRVL ended the Aug. 28 regular session up 4.9%.
• On May 28, 2009, the stock fell 1.9% after meeting with earnings. Shares fell 2.2% the following day.
• On March 5, 2009, MRVL advanced 9.1% in evening trade following better-than-expected Q4 results. The stock cut its gains modestly the next day, ending the March 6 regular session up 7.1%.
• On Dec. 2, 2008, MRVL leaped 10.4% in after-hours trade after beating Street estimates. The stock roared higher the next day, rising 20.4% in the Dec. 3 regular session.
• On Aug. 28, 2008, MRVL declined 3.4% in after-hours trade after beating Q2 expectations. The stock added to its downside in the following regular session, declining 4.4% by the closing bell on Aug. 29.
• On May 29, 2008, the stock gained 14.9% after the company beat with Q1 results. The gain fattened to 23.3% the next day.
• On March 6, 2008, MRVL declined 5.1% in evening trade after reporting a strong Q4 but setting guidance that disappointed Wall Street. The stock saw its downside slim back just a bit the following day, ending the March 7 regular session down 5.0%.
• On Nov. 27, 2007, the stock dropped 9.9% during evening trading after the company beat with Q3 results but announced job cuts. The loss was a slightly deeper 10.1% the next day.
• On Aug. 23, 2007, MRVL shed 8.1% in after-hours trade after the company met Q2 earnings expectations and beat on revenue. It added to its downside the next day, closing the Aug. 24 regular session down 11.7%.
• On May 17, 2007, MRVL firmed 1.5% in night trade despite missing Q1 sales estimates. Shares, though, fell the next day to close the regular session down 2.8%.
• On Feb. 26, 2007, MRVL advanced 5% in after-hours trade after the company reported a year-over-year improvement in Q4 sales but still missed Street estimates. It lost a chunk of that gain in the next day's regular session, gaining a more modest 3%.
• On Nov. 16, 2006, shares fell 3.6% in the evening session. The company beat with revenue figures but offered no EPS results due to its ongoing options review. The loss was pared somewhat the next day when shares finished down 2.9%.
• On Aug. 17, 2006, shares fell 8.5% in the evening hours after the stock missed Q2 revenue expectations. The stock fell 6.9% the next day.
• On May 18, 2006, shares improved 6.2% after the company beat and guided for higher revenue in Q2. The gain swelled to 13.1% the next day.
• On Feb. 23, 2006, shares advanced 4.7% in the evening session after topping with latest results and announcing stock split. The stock nosed down 0.8% the next day.
• On Nov. 17, 2005, MRVL advanced 7.6% after saying Q3 revs of $426 million, vs. the FC mean of $421 million. Pro forma EPS was $0.36 per share, vs. the Street view of $0.33 per share. Shares jumped 12.9% the next day.
• MRVL rose 2.2% on Aug. 18, 2005, after besting Q2 estimates. It narrowed its gain in the Aug. 19 regular session, edging up 0.5%.
• On May 19, 2005 MRVL advanced 1.7% in after-hours trade after the company topped expectations and raised its revenue guidance above the then-current Street view. Buyers pushed more aggressive upside momentum into the stock on May 20, boosting it 3.8% between the bells.
• On Feb. 24, 2005 MRVL gained 3.9% in after-hours trade after the company beat expectations and guided ahead of the Street view. It cut back its upside slightly the next day, ending the Feb. 25 regular session up 3.7%.
• MRVL jumped 6.9% the night of Nov. 18, 2004 after the company beat earnings estimates and set its sales outlook about in line with estimates. The stock saw the bulk of its gains evaporate in next-day trade, ending the Nov. 19 regular session up 1.6%.
• After beating estimates and guiding higher on Aug. 19, 2004 MRVL slid 4.5% in night trade. It cut its declines the following day and ended the regular session up 10.4%.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.