The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report was released this morning for last week. Today's number takes us back above the 400K level, where it has been for 18 of the last 19 weeks. The less volatile and closely watched four-week moving average is now at 17 consecutive weeks above 400K. Here is the official statement from the Department of Labor:
In the week ending August 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 408,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 399,000. The 4-week moving average was 402,500, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average of 406,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.9 percent for the week ending August 6, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 2.9 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending August 6 was 3,702,000, an increase of 7,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,695,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,716,000, a decrease of 4,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,720,500.
Today's seasonally adjusted number was worse than (above) the Briefing.com consensus estimate of 400K.
As we can see, there's a good bit of volatility in this indicator, which is why the 4-week moving average (shown in the callouts) is a more useful number than the weekly data.
(Click charts to enlarge)
Occasionally I see articles critical of seasonal adjustment, especially when the non-adjusted number better suits the author's bias. But a comparison of these two charts clearly shows extreme volatility of the non-adjusted data, and the 4-week MA gives an indication of the recurring pattern of seasonal change in the second chart (note, for example, those regular January spikes).
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