Just as city slickers wouldn't know how to run a ranch, cowboys should keep to their cattle. That's why Bob Evans Farms (Nasdaq: BOBE ) , known for its breakfast sausage and homestyle restaurants, should ditch Mimi's Cafe and stick to what it knows. Otherwise, Bob Evans will struggle to keep growing in the future -- as will its stock price.
Bonjour, Mimi's Cafe
Bob Evans acquired Mimi's Cafe, a French-inspired set of bistros, in 2004 to access new markets with a trendier concept and help bump sales figures. Now, Mimi's Cafe makes up roughly one quarter of Bob Evans' total sales. The restaurant proudly invites you to "Come Enjoy a Taste of France." A taste of France? What does Bob Evans know about France? Those queries aside, there's one question that concerns shareholders the most: How does Bob Evans know how to operate a completely different restaurant?
Au revoir, growth
It doesn't, according to same-store sales, a key metric that measures sales growth at existing locations. While Bob Evans restaurants' same-store sales have fallen slightly, which is comparable to competitors like Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (Nasdaq: CBRL ) and DineEquity's (NYSE: DIN ) Applebee's, Mimi's Cafe has consistently posted losses of 4% or more each of the past three years:
Restaurant | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
---|---|---|---|
Bob Evans | (1.0%) | (3.5%) | (0.3%) |
Mimi's Caf� | (4.5%) | (7.2%) | (7.2%) |
Cracker Barrel | 0.2% | 0.8% | (1.7%) |
Applebee's | 2.3% | .3% | 4.5% |
Sources: Most recent 10-Ks for Bob Evans, Cracker Barrel, and DineEquity.
And according to Bob Evans' latest quarterly report, same-store sales dove another 4.8% at Mimi's Cafe.
Surprisingly, Bob Evans' total returns (including dividends) since buying Mimi's Cafe have kept up with competitors and beaten the market:
Company | Total Returns Since July 1, 2004 |
---|---|
Bob Evans Farms | 40.28% |
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store | 60.71% |
DineEquity | 38.63% |
SPDR S&P 500 | 25.82% |
Source: YCharts.com.
But with Mimi's continual decline, I don't think Bob Evans will keep up returns for long. Every customer that leaves Mimi's puts more pressure on already-thin restaurant margins, lowers the potential return for each Mimi's Cafe location, and will likely drag down the earnings per share.
Bob Evans' Waterloo
Management is obviously having trouble with Mimi's Cafe, but why? Beyond the differences in food, there are fundamental strategic problems that Bob Evans must either solve -- or pass on to a new owner:
These are only a few problems that I see in Bob Evans running a French bistro. If it can turn around the customers that are fleeing Mimi's Cafe, the stock, with its healthy dividend yield of 3%, might be worth a closer look -- especially with increased sales in its sausage and convenience foods. Keep an eye on the next quarterly report, and look for those same-store sales numbers. Until it does improve those numbers, I think Bob Evans' stock price will begin to lag behind the industry.
To help you keep up with coverage on Bob Evans or its competitors, follow them on My Watchlist:
- Add Bob Evans to My Watchlist.
- Add�DineEquity�to My Watchlist.
- Add�Cracker�Barrel�Old�Country�Store�to My Watchlist.
No comments:
Post a Comment