Secular Bull and Bear Markets

Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull? Without a crystal ball, we simply don't know.

One thing we can do is examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of possibilities. An obvious feature of this inflation-adjusted chart of the S&P Composite is the pattern of long-term alternations between up- and down-trends. Market historians call these "secular" bull and bear markets from the Latin word saeculum "long period of time" (in contrast to aeternus "eternal" - the type of bull market we fantasize about).

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